| With the great achievements in economic development and the aggravation of environmental pollution,the issue of carbon emissions has become a hot point concerned by the international society.As a bridge between financial industry and social economic activities,financial intermediary institutions are the lubricant of real economy.It can optimize the allocation of resources to the maximum extent,accelerate the financing of funds,and play an important role in promoting the process of low carbon economy.Therefore,based on the theoretical analysis of the relationship between financial intermediation and carbon emissions,this paper analyzes the local and spatial spillover effects of the "financial intermediation-carbon emissions" system by using the dynamic spatial Dubin model,which has great theoretical and practical significance to define the key point of low-carbon economic development and realize sustainable development.Firstly,based on the theory of financial intermediation,this paper combs the influence mechanism of financial intermediation development on carbon emissions,and analyzes the theoretical mechanism of the impact of financial intermediaries’ development on carbon emission reduction and low-carbon economic development through the five aspects: Scale effect,technology upgrading effect,consumption structure effect,sustainable development effect and industrial structure effect.It also analyzes the current situation of financial development and carbon emissions in 30 provinces of China by using the statistical principle.Secondly,the Moran index is used to test the spatial correlation of the financial intermediation development and carbon emission in every province,and further analyzes the correlation between provinces and local areas on this basis.The test results of total carbon emissions and intensity of carbon emissions show that:(1)There is a positive spatial correlation between the total carbon emission and carbon emission intensity in every province in China,and the emission intensity increases with the passage of time.(2)In the relevant indicators of financial intermediation,financial intermediation scale and mobilizing resident savings function have a significant positive correlation at the global scope,and the other indexes are not significant.(3)The carbon emissions in Beijing,Tianjin,Hebei and the surrounding provinces show high concentration.Sichuan Province is in low concentration area,and the carbon emission intensity in the western regions is "high-high aggregation",and the southeast regions shows "low-low aggregation".(4)Financial intermediation scale is dominated by the low-value aggregation in the west and northeast,and the local aggregation of the mobilizing social fund function is irregular,but it is mainly low-value aggregation.Mobilizing resident savings function is dominated by the high-value aggregation in the northeast and central regions.The correlation degree of investment conversion function among provinces is comparatively weak,and fund allocation function is mainly low-value aggregation.Furthermore,based on the results of spatial correlation analysis,the paper uses LM test,LR test,Wald test and Hausman test to determine that the spatial Dubin model with dynamic effects is used for regression analysis.The effects of financial intermediation development on carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity in local and peripheral areas are also tested.The results show that:(1)The carbon emission and carbon emission intensity have obvious path-dependent characteristics,that is the current carbon emission work has a positive effect of 0.5% and 0.05% on the next stage;The influence coefficient of carbon emissions and carbon emissions intensity in neighboring provinces is significantly positive,and both of them have a strong spatial agglomeration effect.The spatio-temporal hysteresis coefficient is significantly negative,that is the increase of carbon emissions in the adjacent areas in the previous period is beneficial to the development of local carbon emission reduction in the current period.(2)Financial intermediation scale has significant inhibition to the carbon emission reduction process in the local and surrounding areas;Mobilizing resident savings function has significant spatial overflow in the short term,but the local effect is weak.Investment transformation function aggravates the burden of local carbon emission reduction,which is beneficial to the development of low carbon economy in local and surrounding areas in the long term,but has no significant effect in the short term.Capital allocation function has a significant role in promoting local low-carbon development,but it has not yet had space overflow.(3)The long-term effects of financial intermediation development and control variables on carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity are greater than those of short-term ones.The long-term effects of financial intermediation variables and control variables are more significant and far-reaching.In view of this,this paper proposes to strengthen the exchange of regional cooperation,study the government’s carbon emission reduction policy,draw on the enterprise’s carbon emission reduction behavior,the technological innovation,the financial institution’s green credit policy and so on,and carry out the low-carbon activities according to the local conditions to promote the global long-term carbon emission reduction.At the same time,it is necessary to give full play to the technological upgrading of financial intermediation and the effects of consumption structure and industrial structure,to further expand the influence of interregional "demonstration effects" and promote more regions to learn from and emulate each other.Then,strengthening the punishment of the adverse behavior of low-carbon development can be used to enhance the "warning effect". |
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