Spatial Distribution Characteristics And Influencing Factors Of Carbon Dioxide Emissions At Provincial Level In China

Since the 1980s,our economy has been developing rapidly,and in just a few decades,we have completed the industrialization and urbanization of the western developed countries in two or three hundred years.This has also led to the continuous increase of carbon dioxide emissions in recent decades.The rapid rise of carbon dioxide emissions not only has a negative impact on the global climate environment,but also poses an obstacle to China’s high-quality development.In September 2020,China proposed the "30·60 Double carbon" goal at the United Nations General Assembly.Therefore,in order to achieve the goal of "30·60 double carbon",it is necessary to study the factors affecting carbon dioxide emissions.Because of the vast territory,the social and economic development of China has regional heterogeneity.Therefore,the distribution characteristics of carbon dioxide emission and its influencing factors should be analyzed from the spatial perspective.Based on the Carbon Emission Account and Datasets(CEADs)data of China’s provincial carbon emissions from 2003 to 2019,this paper analyzed the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of provincial carbon emissions and tested the global and local spatial correlation of provincial carbon emissions with provincial administrative units as the research object.Secondly,the influence factors of carbon dioxide emission are analyzed.Finally,the traditional dynamic panel model and dynamic spatial panel model are constructed to conduct an empirical study on the influencing factors of carbon emissions.Based on the calculation method published in the IPCC Guidelines on National Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventories,the carbon emission data of each province from 2003 to 2020 are calculated and the spatial panel model regression is carried out.By comparing the regression results obtained from different carbon emission data,the influence of various factors on carbon dioxide emission is analyzed.Meanwhile,the effect of influencing factors is decomposed into direct and indirect effects and long-term and short-term effects.The results show that:(1)the growth trend of carbon dioxide emissions in China is slowing down year by year,and the spatial distribution of carbon dioxide emissions in China is unbalanced,showing a descending gradient pattern of "high in the east and low in the west,high in the north and low in the south",and there is a positive spatial correlation of carbon dioxide emissions,but with the passage of time,the spatial correlation becomes weaker and weaker.(2)There is a significant spatial spillover effect and time lag effect on carbon dioxide emissions in China,showing an obvious aggregation feature in space,and an obvious path-dependent feature in time.There is a time cumulative effect,that is,the carbon dioxide emissions in the last phase have an impact on the carbon dioxide emissions in the next phase.(3)Economic level,population size and industrial structure play a significant role in promoting carbon emissions.Improving technology level,improving transportation structure and increasing R&D investment can effectively reduce carbon emissions.In terms of long and short term effects,the impact of various influencing factors on carbon emissions is mainly short-term immediate effect,rather than long-term impact.