Occurrence Of Turning Point On Environmental Kuznets Curve In The Process Of Deindustrialization

With the acceleration of（de）industrialization,rapid increase in total worldwide energy consumption and excessive carbon emissions have led to a series of environmental problems,like global warming and the rising of sea-level.The climate change has been considered as one of the most serious challenge that human being face in 21^stcentury,arousing great attention from scholars and environmentalists.Based on the hypothesis of Environmental Kuznets Curve,we refer to the upward-sloping part of the EKC as the state of environmental deterioration and to the downward-sloping part as the state of environmental improvement.If a country follows the trajectory of the EKC,there exists a turning point where the country transits from the state of environmental deterioration to the state of environmental improvement during the process of economic development.In the empirical section,we first demonstrate the status quo of carbon emissions and industrial development in several major countries.Then we take the different types of deindustrialization and the level of（de）industrialization as the explanatory variables and employ a hazard-based duration model to study the effects of（de）industrialization on the speed of a country to escape the state of environment deterioration.The results show that the likelihood to reach the turning point for deindustrializing countries is 2.45 times higher than that for industrializing countries.With regard to different types of deindustrialization,the speed to reach the turning point for the premature deindustrializers is 17.17%slower than that for the nonpremature deindustrializers while the speed of transition in negative deindustrialization is almost 1.51 times faster than that in positive deindustrialization.