The Study On The Influence Of Coal Supply And Demand Change On High Quality Economic Development In Northwest China

The report of the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China(CPC)points out that China's economy is changing to high-quality development,thus changing the energy structure dominated by coal,and clean energy and renewable energy have gradually become the driving force of economic growth.Northwest China is one of the rich areas of coal resources.in 2016,the output value of coal industry in Northwest China accounted for7.75% of GDP,which is much higher than 2.67% of the whole country.For a long time,coal has been the main driving force of economic growth in Northwest China.This paper studies the changing trend of coal supply and demand in Northwest China in the future,and the role of coal in the economic growth of Northwest China in the future,in order to provide relevant policy recommendations for the transformation of the coal industry in Northwest China and the realization of high-quality economic development.First of all,this paper combs and summarizes the relevant literature on high-quality development,changes in coal supply and demand and its relationship with economic growth.Secondly,this paper analyzes the influencing factors of coal supply and demand change from the theoretical level,and makes a theoretical analysis of the impact mechanism of energy supply and demand change and economic growth.Finally,the following empirical studies are carried out in this paper:(1)In this paper,Granger causality test is used to analyze the relationship between coal demand and economic growth in Northwest China.the results show that there is a one-way causal relationship between economic growth and coal demand in Northwest China.(2)In this paper,the C-D production function is extended,and the coal supply is introduced as a factor of production.It is concluded that the average contribution rates of total factor productivity,material capital input,labor input and coal supply to economic growth in Northwest China from1981 to 2017 are 4.25%,82.05%,5.09% and 8.60%,respectively.The contribution of coal supply is second only to material capital input.(3)In this paper,the grey system theory GM(1,1)model and Bayesian vector autoregressive(BVAR)model are used to predict the coal supply and demand in Northwest China from 2018 to 2025.It is concluded that the coal supply can reach 510.9651 million tons of standard coal in 2020 and 468.2598 million tons in 2025,and the demand for coal can reach 363.4929 million tons of standard coal in 2020 and 508.6295 million tons in 2025.And the average contribution rate of coal supply to economic growth in Northwest China will decrease to-2.82% between 2018 and 2025,indicating that the contribution of coal supply to economic growth in Northwest China will gradually weaken in the future.Combined with the results of the analysis,this paper puts forward relevant policy suggestions for the future energy development of Northwest China,that is,gradually reducing the dependence of economic growth on the coal industry,supporting the cultivation of new industries,accelerating the transformation and upgrading of the coal industry,promote the development of clean energy and renewable energy,and improve the efficiency of coal energy use,so as to achieve high-quality economic development.