Comprehensive Evaluation Of Tourism Ecological Security In Xinjiang

With the advancement of the construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt,Xinjiang has defined the important position of tourism in economic development.Tourism become an important way to increase income and eliminate poverty in various regions.However,Xinjiang is an area with frail ecology environment,and it’s tourism development will inevitably cause destruction and impact on the fragile environment,which was unfavourable for the sustainable development of tourism areas.Tourism ecological security is the core and objective basis for the sustainable development of tourism.Therefore,studying on tourism ecological security is of great significance to the sustainable development of tourism in Xinjiang.First,based on PSR-SEE model,we chose Xinjiang as a research area,and select 28 indicators from social,economic and environmental to construct the tourism ecological security evaluation index system.The tourism ecological security index were calculated by using the improved TOPSIS method to analyze spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of tourism ecological security in Xinjiang.Then,we adopted obstacle model to diagnose the limiting factors on tourism ecological security of Xinjiang.Finally,based on the tourism ecological security comprehensive index in 2005-2016,we used the GM(1,1)prediction model to predict the tourism ecological security index in Xinjiang from 2017 to 2021.The research conclusions are as follows:(1)In terms of time,the comprehensive tourism eco-safety index,state index and response index of Xinjiang in 2005-2016 basically continued to rise.Among them,from 2005 to 2016,the composite index increased from 0.3728 to 0.6375,and it’s tourism ecological security level increased from sensitive level to general security level,the state index increased from 0.3396 to 0.7161,the response index increased from 0.3859 to 0.6571,and it’s security level increased from sensitive level to a more secure level.The pressure index is alternative variation and safety index rose from 0.4452 to 0.4994.(2)In terms of space,the tourism eco-safety comprehensive index in Xinjiang from 2005 to 2016 was mainly improved from level III to level VI,showing a trend of improving gradually.The stress index is generally on the rise,and most areas at the general safety level.The state index was mainly raised from the risk level and sensitivity level in 2005 to thecomparative safety level and very safety level in 2016.The response system tourism ecological security is getting better.(3)Comprehensive analysis the obstacle factors of tourism ecological security in Xinjiang.From the perspective of the index layer,domestic tourism income has always been the biggest obstacle factor for tourism ecological security in Xinjiang from 2005 to 2011,however,the number of students per 10,000 people is the biggest obstacle from 2012 to 2016.From the perspective of the criterion layer,the stress indicators is the smallest obstacle from2005 to 2014.Since 2014,the state index obstacles have dropped,the pressure index obstacles have risen sharply,and the response indicators have changed little.In 2016,the pressure index has the largest obstacle,the state index is in the middle,and the response index has the least obstacle.(4)Analysis of tourism ecological security barrier factors in various cities.The main obstacle factors are tourism space density,domestic tourism income,tourist density index,the proportion of total tourism income in GDP and tourism foreign exchange income from 2005 to 2009.Since 2009,the barrier factors remain unchanged in Kizilsu and Hotan,but the obstacle factors in other cities are become star-rated hotels,per capita water consumption,the proportion of tertiary industry in GDP and tourism economic density.(5)Using the GM(1,1)prediction model,based on the Xinjiang Tourism Eco-safety Comprehensive Index from 2005 to 2016,a tourism ecological security prediction model was constructed to predict the tourism ecological security index of Xinjiang from 2017 to 2021.It showed that the ecological security of tourism in Xinjiang will be raised from 0.6618 in 2017 to 0.8163 in 2021,and the safety level has reached a very safe level.