Development And Application Of Risk Assessment And Control Model Of High-risk Cross Operations

Major accidents occured during hot work,high-altitude operations,restricted spaces operations,etc.,often cause serious casualties and property damage.So far,the cross-risk arising from the interaction of risk factors in multiple operations within the same region still lacks systematic analysis and research.It is urgent and practical to analyze the cross-influence mechanism of risk factors in high-risk operation process,and to control the risk of high-risk operations comprehensively and systematically.In this paper,the high-risk operations existing in the production process of enterprises were taken as the research object.The statistical analysis method and Bayesian software were used to analyze the cross-impact between risk factors of high-risk operations,and a cross-risk assessment model based on Bayesian Network(BN)for high-risk operations was constructed.Based on the model,a high-risk cross-operation risk control model based on Risk Cross Entropy(RCE)was established for cross-operation and applied to a chimney anti-corrosion project.The research contents were as follows:(1)The construction of the cross-risk assessment indicator system for high-risk operations.According to the characteristics of high-risk operations,combined with historical accident cases and on-site investigations,15 risk factor indicators of human,material,environment and management were summarized.A questionnaire survey on 15 risk factor indicators was conducted and the results were statistically analyzed.The 3 levels of risk status were determined,and the risk status statistics of each risk factor indicator were obtained.(2)The establishment of the cross-risk assessment model for high-risk operations based on BN.With the help of Bayesian software,through machine learning combined with expert knowledge method,the cross-impact relationship between risk factors was obtained,and the structure and parameters of BN were further determined.Subsequently,a cross-risk assessment model based on BN for high-risk operations was constructed.By assessing the risk of high-risk operations in an economic zone,8 high-sensitivity factors that easily lead to accidents were obtained.(3)The establishment of the high-risk cross-operation risk control model based on BN-RCE.According to the relative entropy theory,combined with job scheduling,cross-correlation and BN model risk assessment result,a high-risk cross-operation risk control model based on BN-RCE was established.Subsequently,the concept of “cross-degree” for describing cross-correlation was proposed,and the calculation method of cross-degree and cross-operation risk was studied.(4)The research on model application.Taking a chimney anti-corrosion construction project from a paper company as an example,the BN-RCE model was verified and applied.Additionally,an algorithm program was developed using mathematical software to enhance the practicability of the model.From the perspective of BN node sensitivity and cross-degree control method,22 safety improvement measures were proposed.Subsequently,the RCE model was applied to assess the risk of cross-operation system after taking these security improvements.The result showed that the RCE value of the cross-operation system decreased by 52.1%,and the overall risk of cross-operation of the chimney anti-corrosion construction project was greatly reduced.The practical value and reliability of this risk control model is good.