Study On The Method Of Traffic Operation Risk Assessment

A large number of people and vehicles flowed in the city within a short period of time during major activities,which caused a huge risk to its traffic operation and posed a severe challenge to its traffic security.The research specifically on the traffic risk of major activities is still very weak based on the current research situation at home and abroad,so the research in this paper has certain practical significance.The thesis combined with the characteristics of traffic activities of major events,and conducted research on traffic risks of major events in accordance with rigorous and scientific guidelines.Firstly,the thesis analyzes the characteristics of traffic demand,traffic characteristics and traffic pressure during major events.Based on the definition of general risk,combined with the temporary and reliability of traffic demand during major activities,it is determined that both traffic accidents and traffic delays are listed as risks considered in this article.A risk assessment model that specializes in researching the traffic operation of major activities is established based on the risk connotation of this article.In terms of risk assessment methods,it introduces commonly used assessment methods at home and abroad,comparatively analyzes the characteristics of each method,and combines the needs of major activities to determine the use of quantitative analysis as the main,general complexity,comprehensive consideration of multiple factors of fuzzy Bayes Network method.In terms of the selection of evaluation indicators,the evaluation indicators for traffic operation risk in previous literatures were collated,combined with the characteristics of major activities,and based on the principles of comprehensiveness,representativeness,and practicality,18 evaluation indicators such as precipitation intensity were determined.In the process of establishing the Bayesian network,the topology of the Bayesian network is determined according to the causal relationship between the indicators;according to the characteristics of each indicator,the actual scenario is considered,and the status of the node is determined in accordance with the risk assessment requirements of major activities.Number and meaning of each state;use data collection and other methods to determine the probability table of each node;use the reasoning analysis,control variables and other methods in Netica to study and judge the traffic risk of major activities.Finally,the Beijing winter large-scale sports event was selected as a case.The fuzzy Bayesian network model proposed in this paper was used to obtain the risk level during the event,which further verified the feasibility of the model.