Research On Dynamic Effects Of Green Total Factor Productivity From Environmental Regulation,Industrial Agglomeration In Endogenous Perspective Based On Panel VAR Model

The empirical research on environmental regulation,industrial agglomeration and productivity was mainly focused on the static unidirectional causality test,ignoring the reverse effect of productivity on environmental regulation,industrial agglomeration.Namely there may be a bidirectional dynamic relationship between environmental regulation,industrial agglomeration and productivity.Based on this,Slacks-based measure(SBM)and Global Malmquist Luenberger index were used to evaluate green total factor productivity of 108 prefecture-level cities of Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2003 to 2016.And the dynamic change and decomposition efficiency of GTFP were analyzed.Finally,the panel vector auto-regression(PVAR)model tested whether there was a bidirectional dynamic relationship between'environmental regulation-industrial agglomeration-GTFP'.The results showed that: overall GTFP fluctuated,and was an upward trend slightly circuitously;the average of total green technology efficiency and technology change were positive growth,meaning the growth of GTFP were driven by green technology efficiency and green technology change together.More importantly,GTFP and environmental regulation were reciprocally causal,but there was only unidirectional Granger causality relationship with industrial agglomeration.environmental regulation and industrial agglomeration were reciprocally causal too.GMM estimation results and impulse response function showed that the impact of both environmental regulation and industrial agglomeration on GTFP were time-varying in the opposite direction.The conclusions were in accordance with the theoretical model.And the results of variance decomposition analysis suggest that environmental regulation,industrial agglomeration are the important variables to explain the forecasting mean squsre error of the pollution variable but it's not true vice versa.Therefore,in order to achieve ‘win-win' for China's economic development and environmental quality improvement,the government should make efforts to project reasonable environmental regulation,promote the positive impacts of industrial agglomeration and improve the level of industrial agglomeration.