Quantitative Study Of Fosfomycin Process Risk Based On Improved Bayesian Network

With the rapid development of the economy,the demand for new materials(raw materials)has grown,and the fine chemical industry has become one of the most dynamic emerging industries in the chemical industry.However,due to the diversity,complexity and frontier nature of the fine chemical production process,the safety production standardization system of its industry has not been completely established;and there are many safety hazards in its production process,so the development of fine chemical safety risk assessment for enterprise safety production it is of great significance.Through the safety risk assessment,the nature/basic cause of the accident is determined,and the process is optimized according to the basis,thereby reducing the possibility of accidents and improving the overall level of safety production of chemical enterprises.In this paper,the key equipment in the fosfomycin process was selected by ARAMIS method(industrial accident risk assessment method),and the bow structure diagram of key equipment was constructed.The basic rules of fault tree and event tree transformation into Bayesian network are briefly discussed.Firstly,the fosfomycin process bow structure diagram is transformed into Bayesian network diagram,and the Bayesian network method is used to quantify the risk.And then use Netica software to perform modeling analysis to obtain the probability of accidents and the posterior probability of each basic event when the accident occurs.Finally,the relevant content of the set pair analysis is introduced to adjust the posterior probability,and the adjusted posterior probability and importance are used to find the cause that is most likely to cause the accident.