Decomposition Of Natural Gas Consumption Structure In Typical Countries And China’s Consumption Forecast

As a kind of high quality clean energy,natural gas plays a key role in optimizing the energy consumption structure.Compared with developed countries,the proportion of natural gas in energy consumption in China is obviously low.How to change the trend of natural gas in China in the future is a problem worth discussing.In this paper,the natural gas consumption in the United Kingdom,the United States,France,Germany and Japan is analyzed for the first time by means of the Dirichlet logarithmic index decomposition method from the effects of fossil energy substitution,energy structure,per capita energy consumption intensity and population impact,respectively,in order to decompose the main influencing factors,so as to guide the natural gas consumption in China.For the study of natural gas consumption in China,this paper uses the same factor decomposition method as typical countries to decompose and analyze the factors of natural gas consumption from economic output(industry,transportation,commerce)and non-economic output(living sector),respectively.This paper uses the effects of fossil energy substitution,energy structure,economic output and energy consumption intensity as well as the overall effect.Benefits(the sum of four effects)are decomposed and analyzed for the economic output industries.The non-economic output industries are decomposed from the demand effect of residents’ natural gas consumption,the effect of natural gas pipeline infrastructure construction and the effect of natural gas pipeline service.The analysis of economic output shows that the economic output effect makes the natural gas consumption continue to grow rapidly,which is the main source of natural gas consumption;clean and low carbon demand(fossil energy substitution effect)is also an important factor driving the growth of consumption;the improvement of energy efficiency is the biggest factor restraining natural gas consumption,but the restraining effect is obviously less than the pulling action of the above two aspects.Use.Non-economic output analysis shows that the construction of natural gas pipeline infrastructure and the demand for natural gas have greatly stimulated the consumption of natural gas.Through the analysis of the above economic and non-economic output on the factors of natural gas consumption and the development trend of these factors in the future,it is predicted that China’s natural gas market will enter a high-speed development stage in the future,with demand of 301.7 billion cubic meters in 2020,418 billion cubic meters in 2025 and 551.9 billion cubic meters in 2030.In the future,we need to pay more attention to the consumption of natural gas.We will vigorously develop science and technology,promote the application of natural gas in fossil energy,and reduce the emission of carbon materials.Strengthen the construction of natural gas pipeline infrastructure to meet users’ demand for natural gas consumption.At the same time,we should promote energy conservation and improve energy efficiency.