Research On The Evolution Mechanism And Coordinated Development Of Tin Industry

Tin is a versatile and environmentally friendly metal that plays an important role in many fields.In recent years,with the strong development of the macro economy,the demand for tin consumption has continued to rise,and China has shifted from the largest producer to the largest consumer of tin.As China's economic and social development enters a new era,China's tin industry is facing serious challenges such as the decline in resource security years,increased environmental constraints,insufficient market demand highlights,and reduced corporate profits.Therefor,It is urgent to study and explore the dynamic process of tin industry development so that the continuous optimization of industrial systems can provides a stable source of raw materials for China's economic development.Based on the evolution of tin industry,this paper analyzes the evolution of China's tin industry from three dimensions:evolution mechanism,evolution stage and coordinated development evaluation.Using data of China's tin industry from 1996 to 2017,this paper analyzes the driving mechanism of the tin industry evolution,finds the evolution order parameters,and combines the potential function to analyze the evolution law of the tin industry.At the same tine,by employing the manufacturer's net entry rate method and two-dimensional identification method from the perspective of industrial organization and the output growth rate method and growth curve method from the perspective of industrial scale,the empirical analysis of the evolution stage of the tin industry is carried out to judge the possible trend of the evolution of the tin industry..finally,based on above analyses,a coordinated evaluation model of tin industry was constructed to calculate the coordination degree and development degree of tin industry,and a degree of coordinated development was solved.Finally,policy recommendations were made based on the empirical results.The research shows that:(1)The change of order parameters is not affected and controlled by the tin industry itself;technological progress is the final point of action for the evolution of tin industry;the synergy between industrial components needs to be strengthened;the essence of industrial evolution is the synergy and upgrading process of industrial system.(2)China's tin industry is currently in a recession.If there is major technological innovation,the industry will enter a new cycle,otherwise the industry will disappear eventually.(3)The development score of tin industry is low,and the score of coordination degree is high.The coordination of industrial system is at the cost of industrial backwardness.In addition,tin industry system is currently in the recession stage of industrial evolution and the coordination of industrial system is bound to be further reduced.If major technological changes do not occur,the entire tin industry will continue to be in a downturn.Therefore,the following policy recommendations are proposed:to improve the role of technological progress in the evolution of industry;to strengthen the linkage effect of leading enterprises;to accelerate the improvement of the economic benefits of the tin industry;to strive to achieve the coordination and development of the tin industry system;also,the government need to play a leading role to reducing the constraints of resource endowments on industrial evolution.