| As one of the most important energy sources in the world,fossil fuels is driving the development of the world economy.However,the issue of greenhouse effect caused by fossil fuels has been increasingly prominent.In response to the environmental problems caused by the greenhouse gases,mainlyCO~2,the Chinese government,among the other governments that have put forward their emission reduction plans,has revealed its goals to cut down 60%-65%of carbon dioxide emissions per unit GDP in 2030 from 2005.How to achieve a sound development of the economy and the reduction goals through structural adjustment,with the increasingly tight carbon emission policy,has become a major concern for all levels of the government in Jiangxi Province.The paper selects the proportion of various industrial structures in Jiangxi Province from 2006 to 2015 as the research object.By comparing the output value of the three industries in Jinagxi and in the whole country,this paper finds that the development progress of the three industries in Jiangxi is behind the average level in China.The proportion of industrial output in the first and second industries is still higher than that of the first and second industries in China,and the proportion of the tertiary industry is still lower than the average proportion of the third industry.By comparing the three industrial proportions of 11 prefecture-level cities in Jiangxi province in 2015,the three industrial structures of these cities were found in the form of"two,three,one".The first industry accounted for the smallest proportion in Nanchang city,which was 4.28%.The second industry accounted for the largest proportion in Yingtan city,which was 59.38%.The third industry accounted for the largest proportion in Nanchang city,which was 41.22%.By studying the consumption of industrial fossil energy in Jiangxi province from1995 to 2015,this paper finds that the industry in Jiangxi province is still dominated by three traditional energy sources:coal,oil and natural gas.The types of energy consumption show the characteristics of industrial distribution and regional distribution.Based on the per capita GDP of China's provinces and cities in 2006,the paper divides the development degree of various regions in China and determines the target industry structure.The empirical analysis of deviation degree shows there is a gap between the first and third industries and the target industrial structure in Jiangxi Province from 2006 to 2015,and the second industry has been the main industry.The trend of proportion of the first industry is similar to the target industrial structure in the past decade,and the overall declining trend is still higher than the target proportion and the degree of deviation has been increasing.The share of the secondary industry,which maintained at around 50%,has shown an overall downward trend compared to the target industry structure in the past ten years,but it is slightly higher than its target share,and the degree of deviation has shown a tendency to shrink.Both the proportion of the tertiary industry and the target industry structure have shown an upward trend in the past ten years,in which the actual proportion of it has risen to over 36.8%,which is lower than the target ratio.The orderliness of the three industrial structures in Jiangxi Province has revealed an inverted U-shape in the past ten years,through measuring the trend of the overall industrial structure,in which the industrial structure has the highest degree of ordering in 2010 and 2011,followed by a downward trend,and it has dropped to 0.917 in 2015,indicating that in recent years Jiangxi's three industrial structures have shown a general deterioration.Based on the per capita GDP of China's provinces and cities in 2006,this paper divides the development degree of various regions in China and determines the target industry structure.On this basis,through empirical analysis of industrial carbon emissions,it has been found that the total carbon emissions of industries above designated scale in Jiangxi Province have shown an overall upward trend during the period from 2006 to 2015,rising from 12.803 million tons in 2006 to 191.2 million tons in 2015,but the YOY growth rate has shown a downward trend.The carbon emission efficiency has increased significantly in the recent ten years,from 148.80yuan per ton economic output value to 380.15 yuan in 2015,which means 155.48%increase in a decade.Affected by the slowdown in population growth,per capita carbon emissions has also increased in the past decade,from 4339 tons per person in2006 to 4566 tons per person in 2015.In this paper,the correlation empirical model is used to explore the dependence of industrial structure and industrial carbon emissions in Jiangxi province from 2006 to2015.Through relevant empirical analysis,the paper finds that the proportion of the primary industry is negatively correlated with the industrial carbon emissions above the designated size,and the correlation coefficient is-0.988 The second and third industries accounted for a strong positive correlation with carbon emissions,with correlation coefficients of 0.485 and 0.710.The overall industrial structure and the positive correlation of carbon emissions is not significant,and the correlation coefficient is 0.337.Through multiple regression analysis,this paper discusses the factors that influence the carbon emissions in industries above designated size,the structure of the three industries,per capita GDP,environmental regulation intensity and level of technological innovation of industrial carbon emissions,and indicates that in the condition of 90%confidence level,the influence of the three industries on industrial emissions is significant,the per capita GDP,the intensity of environmental regulation and technology innovation level has no significant effect on carbon emissions,and influence of of the three industry structure is greater than the other three factors,in which the second industry is the most crucial factor.Based on the above argumentation,this paper puts forward the following policy suggestions:1)increase investment in clean energy production facilities;2)improve energy efficiency of the industry;3)introduce the low-carbon environmental protection industry and optimize the second industrial structure;4)increase investment in tertiary industry;5)develop characteristic agriculture and increase the added value of agricultural products. |
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