Study On The Risk Estimation Model Of Prediction Results Of Mine Water Inflow

Mine water inflow prediction is the main content of the hydrogeological exploration of deposits.It is a complex and arduous work and of great significance to the safety production of mine.However,the forecast of mine water inflow is still at the level of approximate calculation and the prediction accuracy needs to be further improved.Therefore,it is necessary to clarify the uncertainties affecting the reliability of the prediction results of mine water inflow.Among these many uncertainty factors,identifying the main risk factors can estimate the risk rate of the prediction results of mine water inflow,and provide a theoretical basis and foundation for fundamentally improving the reliability of mine water inflow prediction.Based on the detailed analysis of the geological and hydrogeological conditions of the example deposit,this article determines the main uncertainties affecting the prediction of mine water inflow,and identifies the main risk factors.The results show that the sensitivity of H is higher than K and the sensitivity of K is higher than M,the influence of s is relatively the weakest,and contraries to the effect of other three parameters.Then the MC,JC and the fuzzy-stochastic method are applied to establish the risk rate estimation model,quantitatively analyze risk of prediction of mine water inflow and studies the influences of distribution type and variability of the parameters on the estimation of the risk rate.The results of the MC and JC method show that,if the parameters take the average values,the random risk rates of the actual mine water inflow over the predicted mine water inflow are 48.73% and 47.61% respectively,close to 50%.To a certain extent,it explains one of the reasons that the mine water inflow prediction is quite different from the actual mine water inflow.In addition,the variability of random variables has a significantly greater effect on risk than the type of distribution.The fuzzy random risk rate estimation is introducing a cut-off ? value,and shows that the risk rate obtained is a range instead of a definite value.This is mainly because that the fuzzy stochastic risk model has a comprehensive consideration of the randomness and ambiguity of random variables.As a result,the reliability and accuracy of the risk results are improved to some extent.So we can conclude that uncertain factors have a certain influence on the reliability of prediction results of mine water inflow,and the analysis results can provide a scientific reference for the design of water supply and drainage schemes in mining areas.