| Hazardous materials tanker fire has been a thorny issue in emergency management because of its wide range of influence and difficulty in fighting.It is of great significance and practical urgency to study the fire risk of hazardous materials tankers to ensure the safety of people ’ s lives and property and maintain social stability.In order to construct the fire risk assessment model of hazardous materials tanker,this paper uses uncertain information theory,ALOHA numerical simulation,multiple logistic regression,fuzzy logic and other theories and methods to study the fire risk of hazardous materials tanker,so as to establish a scientific and effective fire risk assessment model of hazardous materials tanker.The research contents and results of this paper are as follows.(1)Based on the statistical data of the fire accidents of hazardous chemicals tankers in China from 2013 to 2020,the accident law is analyzed from the aspects of the time and spatial distribution characteristics of the accident,the accident type,and the nature of hazardous chemicals.On this basis,the sources and types of uncertain information in road transport system of hazardous chemicals tanker are determined.Finally,combined with the research results of uncertain information and laws of hazardous chemical tanker fire,the risk factors of hazardous chemical tanker fire are identified from five aspects of space and road characteristics,time and meteorological characteristics,personnel factors,vehicle and equipment factors and hazardous chemical factors.Based on the information fuzziness of hazardous chemical tanker transportation system,the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is selected as the risk assessment method.(2)The ALOHA software was used to establish the calculation model of the fire damage range of hazardous chemical tankers,and the numerical calculation was carried out for the possible three types of fires of hazardous chemical tankers : pool fire,jet fire and BLEVE.The lethal area of the three types of fires was determined respectively.By changing the parameters of temperature,wind speed,medium quality and leakage aperture,the influence of them on the lethal area of fire was explored.Finally,the quantitative models of the lethal area of three types of fire were established.(3)Using the multinomial logistic model,the fire types of common hazardous chemicals tankers are regarded as the explained variable categories.Combined with the identification results of the fire risk factors of hazardous chemicals tankers,15 explanatory variables are selected,including road type,whether special sections,region,accident season,time period,weather,driver ’ s age,health status,driving years,tanker size,safety accessories,filling rate,transportation quality of hazardous chemicals,inflammable and explosive,and normal temperature of hazardous chemicals.On this basis,the regression equation of fire probability of hazardous chemicals tanker based on multi-logistics is constructed.The test results show that the equation has good aboriginality and goodness of fit.(4)Based on the fuzzy logic theory,the fire risk assessment model of hazardous chemicals tankers is constructed.The membership functions of fire fatal area,population exposure density,fire probability and fire risk level were established respectively,and then the corresponding fuzzy logic rule base was established.The fire risk assessment model of hazardous chemicals tanker was constructed based on fuzzy logic principle.The model is used to evaluate the risk of a dangerous chemical transportation enterprise.The accurate value of fire risk is 0.48,which is judged to be moderate risk,and the corresponding accident prevention countermeasures are put forward.The research results further improve the research and evaluation system of fire risk of hazardous chemicals tankers,enrich the research methods of fire consequences and probability prediction of hazardous chemicals,and provide reference for the research on the risk of hazardous chemicals road transportation.At the same time,the research has practical significance in the practical work of road transportation and production of hazardous chemical tankers.It can not only provide a theoretical basis for the prevention of fire accidents of hazardous chemical tankers,but also provide a reference for the further development of controlling fire accidents of hazardous chemical tankers,reducing the loss of accidents and improving the public safety level of road transportation. |
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