Study On Land Use In Shanghai From A Low Carbon Perspective

The rapid development of the global economy improved the quality of people life,at the same time it also produced a series of problems such as resource consumption and environmental pollution intensified.At present,the environmental issues cannot be igored,which human activities produce the carbon emissions effects and the impact on the atmospheric environmental continues to intensify,the global climate is warming.The rational development of land is one of the important policies of a series of production and life,such as urban economic construction,industrial upgrading and optimization of traffic pattern.The impact on carbon emissions of land use change is second only to urban energyconsumption.It can be see that land use planning and layout relate to the urban economic development and land resources,while affect the pattern of urban carbon emissions and energy consumption patterns.Land use planning should meet the needs of urban low-carbon development to achieve the development of environment and economy harmoniously.Therefore,carbon source/ carbon sink of urban land use and theanalysis about land use management are one of the important topics in the current study.The change of carbon source/ carbon sink of cultivated land,forest land,grassland and construction land were studied in Shanghai during 2003 to 2015,based on the data of land use change,energy consumption,population and economy in Shanghai.This paper analyzed the internal driving mechanism of land use carbon emissions by using relevant models.at the same time,the carbon emissions in the next seven years were forecasted and the quantity structure of four types of land in Shanghai were optimized.This paper not only provides a new research idea for the study about carbon emissions of regional land use,but also provides scientific and reasonable suggestions for the future development of low carbon and the sustaninale use of land in Shanghai.There are the following conclusions:(1)The total carbon emissions of land use in Shanghai showed an upward trend from 2003 to 2015.It reached a maximum in 2003 of 42.282 million ton.The total carbon uptake increased from 34.4 thousand ton in2003 to 53.2 thousand ton in 2015,with an average annual growth rate of 4.20%.The carbon sink of land use was weak,the land use showed the characteristics of high carbon emissions in Shanghai.(2)There was a certain correlation between the change of land use structure and carbon emissions in Shanghai,and the carrelation between construction land and carbon emissions was becoming more and more significant.The impulse response function analysis of the VAR model showed that the impact of the total energy factor on the carbon intensity of the construction land was the largest,the economic level was the second,and the industrial structure was the smallest.The impact of the total energy on carbon intensity wasthe strongest.At the same time,the four groups of time series were analyed by variance.The contribution of each factor to the change of carbon intensity was: total energy> carbon intensity> economic level> industrial structure.(3)In addition to 2010~2012 and 2013~2014,It showed the strong decoupling state between land use carbon emissions and economic growth as a whole in Shanghai,The rest of the year showed a weak decoupling during 2003 to 2015.(4)Using the gray forecasting model GM(1,1)analyzed the carbon emissions,It showed that land use carbon emissions in Shanghai will have a sustained increase trend,and the carbon emissions will reach 52.28 million ton till 2022.The land optimization program will make the overall economic efficieny decreased of land use in Shanghai,but the land use of carbon emissions will decrease significantly.