Research On The Influence Of Population Aging On Urban Residents' Consumption Based On Threshold Regression Model

With the progress of the economy and society,the aging process of China's population is accelerating.Facing all kinds of problems and troubles brought by the aging society,how we deal with them deserves the attention of the whole society.At the same time,over the past 40 years of reform and opening up and the completion of the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects,how to effectively promote economic development is our primary concern.Under the situation of the world economic situation is not optimistic,expanding domestic demand is the only way,and to expand domestic demand we need to improve the urban household's consumption,in general,an aging population will affect the consumption of urban households,so for an aging population to urban residents consumption what impact as well as the researches on the scientific problems is how to influence is a priority.Therefore,this article will use the 2008-2017 China's 31 provinces,municipalities directly under the central government,autonomous regions,elderly dependency ratio,more than 65 years old and the elderly population than that of urban residents consumption level index,the consumer price index,such as the relevant provincial panel data,respectively about the present situation of the aging population,urban residents' consumption status were statistically summarized its characteristics,and through stata14.0,build the panel threshold regression model,respectively,elderly dependency ratio and more than 65 years old and older population aging than two indicators analysis for the influence of consumption of urban households.According to the analysis,whether it is the dependency ratio of the elderly or the population proportion of the elderly aged 65 or above,as the key explanatory variables,population aging has a positive impact on the household consumption of urban residents.According to the specific mechanism of aging on the household consumption of urban residents,reasonable policy Suggestions are proposed.