Research On The Influencing Factors And Improvement Path Of China's Return On Capital From The Perspective Of Population Aging

China's rapid economic growth after the reform and opening-up can not be separated from the capital formation rate which is much higher than other countries in the world.In recent years,China's capital formation rate has been stable at more than 40%,which shows that China's economic development depends on investment,and whether the capital return rate is stable at a high value is the key factor affecting the capital formation rate.In 1956,the United Nations defined the country with 7% of the aging population as an aging country.According to the United Nations,China has entered the ranks of aging society as early as 2000.In recent years,the speed of China's aging has been accelerating.By 2017,the proportion of China's aging population has reached 11.3%.The aging of China's society is becoming more and more serious,which makes the real problems such as the decline of labor supply and the rise of cost in the society begin to intensify.The “demographic dividend“ begins to gradually disappear.Will this bring a blow to economic growth? As an important macro variable affecting capital formation rate and China's economy,the return on capital reflects the profitability of capital and guides the flow of capital.In recent years,the return on capital has continued to decline,which makes scholars worry about China's future economic development.Therefore,it is imperative to study the return on capital.When the “demographic dividend“ begins to disappear,the aging of the population has become the main problem facing the society,so whether it will have an impact on the rate of return on capital,this paper intends to clarify the relationship between the aging of the population and the rate of return on capital,so as to have a full understanding of the impact of the growing aging of our country,and understand its impact on the economic development of our country Opportunities and challenges have become particularly important.There are a lot of literatures on the influencing factors of return on capital.Most of the existing literatures focus on capital allocation,TFP and so on.First of all,this paper combs the theories and calculation methods of population aging and return on capital.On this basis,it theoretically analyzes the mechanism of the impact of aging on return on capital through the theory of factor substitution,the derivation of Cobb Douglas production function and the study of capital allocation efficiency,and puts forward three hypotheses.One is that population aging will promote regional capital The second hypothesis is that population aging affects the return on capital through two ways: Total Factor Productivity and public health investment.The third hypothesis is that population aging has different effects on the return on capital in different directions or regions with different aging degrees,that is,there is a certain heterogeneity impact.The second hypothesis is the causes and characteristics of population aging in China,as well as capital The results of the measurement of the rate of return are analyzed.Thirdly,the fixed effect panel model is used to analyze the relationship between population aging and the rate of return on capital,and GMM regression,instrumental variable method and substitution variable method are used to test the robustness and endogeneity of the empirical results.The empirical results accept the three assumptions of this paper and get the following conclusions:(1)population aging has an impact on the rate of return on capital At present,the rate of return on capital has a positive impact,which “forces“ the improvement of the rate of return on capital.(2)through the intermediary effect test,it is found that the aging of population will “force“ the improvement of the return on capital through the improvement of TFP,and restrain the return on capital through public medical investment.The former's intermediary effect is better than the former's(3)through the heterogeneity study,it is found that the aging of regions with low population aging has more influence on the return on capital Large,the central and western regions are more affected by the degree of aging than the eastern regions.The main reason may be that the higher marginal productivity in the west makes the impact of aging more intense.At last,this paper puts forward some suggestions on how to avoid the adverse effects of population aging and give full play to its positive side.