Empirical Research On The Impact Of Real Estate Market Fluctuation On Regional Total Factor Productivity

Since China’s real estate market entered the financialization stage in 1998,the real estate industry has greatly improved the housing problem,consumption problem and urban appearance problem of China’s huge population,which has had a significant impact on China’s economic development.The real estate market economy is indispensable in promoting economic investment and stabilizing economic growth,and it is an important part of China’s economy.It stimulates economic growth through direct investment or drives the development of related industries to promote economic growth.With the continuous development of China’s economy,the report to the 19 th national congress of the communist party of China(CPC)on October 18,2017 pointed out that China’s economy has shifted from the stage of high-speed growth to the stage of highquality development,and put forward the concept of total factor productivity,indicating that the economic growth brought by dividend of low-cost labor force and extensive investment is gradually disappearing.In order to clarify the impact of the real estate market on total factor productivity growth at the present stage,this paper mainly studies from the following aspects:First,relevant literature was sorted out from the perspective of real estate market fluctuation and total factor productivity,and the mechanism of action between the two was analyzed theoretically to provide a theoretical basis for the following research.Second,the current situation of core variables and explained variables is analyzed.Based on the panel data of 31 provinces and cities except Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan in China from 2002 to 2018,the index system was constructed to calculate the degree of real estate market fluctuation,and the total factor productivity of 31 provinces and cities from 2002 to 2018 was calculated based on DEA.As can be seen from the data results,both the real estate market and total factor productivity are in a state of fluctuation in the sample years.Third,carry out empirical analysis.Firstly,the spatial econometric model and the setting of spatial weight matrix are introduced.Based on the spatial autocorrelation test of total factor productivity,the empirical research model is finally determined by LM and Hausman test.Secondly,four control variables are introduced,namely,financial development level,government consumption level,urban facilities level and human capital level,and the spatial lag panel model is used to study the impact of real estate market fluctuations on regional total factor productivity through empirical analysis.The results show that :(1)the fluctuation of the real estate market inhibits the influence of regional total factor productivity in the whole country and the eastern and western regions to different degrees,but does not promote the central region significantly.(2)in terms of the selected control variables,the level of financial development also exerts different degrees of inhibition on regional total factor productivity,especially in the eastern region.The level of government consumption and the level of urban facilities have different effects.The level of human capital plays a significant role in promoting the growth of regional total factor productivity and has the largest effect.Finally,the effect analysis under the full sample is introduced to enrich the empirical results.The results show that the real estate market fluctuations and the level of financial development not only have a significant negative impact on the total factor productivity of the region,but also have the same impact on other regions.The promotion effect of urban facility level is not obvious;Government consumption and human capital promote TFP more in other regions than in other regions.Fourth,summary and policy recommendations.Based on theoretical and empirical analysis,this paper proposes four Suggestions for promoting the improvement of regional total factor productivity :(1)strengthening macro-control and restraining the real estate market fluctuations;(2)improve the financial market system and improve the efficiency of the financial market;(3)strengthen coordinated development among regions and narrow the gap in regional development;(4)increase investment in human capital and improve the competitiveness of human capital.