| Under the new normal economy,the development mode of China's economy has changed from investment driven to innovation driven,which economic growth and investment growth will continue to slow down.However,due to the different stages of economic development in different regions,the western region,which is in the middle and late stage of industrialization,will still have the characteristics of "high investment and high growth".Starting from the hypothesis of classical economics,under the condition that other inputs remain unchanged,the law of diminishing marginal returns of capital shows that a sustained increase in investment will lead to a decrease in marginal output of capital.Obviously,as the level of economic development in the western region converges to the developed stage,such a high rate of investment will certainly not continue,and innovation and development will be more important.Once considering the technical heterogeneity and "learn by doing"which has a positive effect on capital return,and the neutral technical progress contains that such as education improvement,institutional change,technological innovation will promote capital return.Since the western region's economic growth is more dependent on the"investment driven",this paper takes Yunnan as an example to test regional capital returns.Firstly we construct a new neoclassical CES function,and derive the decomposition equation of capital return;then calculate the annual capital stock of Yunnan province and national by perpetual inventory method,estimates both the rate of capital return from 1980 to 2015 in Yunnan and national capital return from 1993 to 2015,and finally carry out the dynamic decomposition and empirical analysis of the capital return changes in this period by a decomposition equation.We found that:(1)The change trend of capital return rate in Yunnan province has increased firstly and then decreased volatility,the Yunnan capital return rate has been below the national level since 1996;which declined significantly after 2010,while appeared passivation in 2014;(2)The marginal output elasticity of capital in Yunnan province is-0.82,the impact of capital accumulation on the growth rate of capital return is negative,the technological progress contribution to Yunnan capital return rate tends to decrease,which is an important reason for the rapid decline of capital return;(3)The manufacturing investment in Yunnan province is relatively low,the purchase of equipment is insufficient,and the proportion of the third industry investment is too high,which leads to the lack of regional innovation capability.This paper suggests:(1)We should correct investment preferences,increase investment in the second industry,especially equipment updating or technical upgrading investment of the manufacturing sector,optimize the development of the third industry,develop the middle and high-end service industries with comparative advantages,and avoid repeated investment in the low-end service industry;(2)From the following aspects such as educational investment,research incentives,financial support and other policy regulations to improve regional technological innovation capability in multi dimensions;which is the reason why Yunnan's capital deepening accelerates but lacks technological progress. |
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