Dynamics Model Of HFMD And HIV Based On Population Heterogeneity

Heterogeneity plays an important role in more accurately calculating the basic reproduction number and the scale of transmission in infectious diseases.This paper mainly studies hand-foot-mouth disease?HFMD?and AIDS with population heterogeneity,and establishes disease transmission models suitable for hand-foot-mouth disease and AIDS according to heterogeneous factors.And then the model is analyzed and numerically simulated to achieve the effects of predicting disease scale and evaluating control strategies.The main contents of this paper are as follows:First part,in order to explore the effect of EV-71 vaccine on the overall prevalence of foot and mouth disease in different age groups,we establish a hand-foot-mouth disease model for EV-71 virus with four age structures based on the heterogeneity of contact rate in newborns?0-1 years?,preschool children?1-2 years?,school-age children?3-5 years old?and adults?over 6 years old?.then,We calculated he basic reproduction number of the model and the control reproduction number under different vaccination conditions.At last,we calculated the number of new infections and the final size of the overall prevalence among all age groups by numerical simulation.Second part,in order to study the transmission of HIV in the MSM population,we established a model consistent with the spread of AIDS in the MSM group based on the heterogeneity of fixed and non-fixed partners in the MSM group,and then introduced media influence factors.Introduce media influence factors in the model and conduct theoretical analysis of the model to explore the effect of propaganda and education on the prevention and control of HIV infection.The basic reproduction number of AIDS transmission in MSM group without media interventionR₀?28?1.5447 is obtained.Based on the comparison of the implementation of three different detection and treatment measures,it can be concluded that the promotion of condom use is more effective than other strategies,and using condoms with a fixed partner can reduce the value ofR₀ more quickly.In addition,according to the heterogeneity of susceptible people in the MSM group,we divided the susceptible people into two types of habitual condom use and no condom use habit.Based on this,we established a model to study the impact of new infections when the proportion of susceptible people is change.And it was obtained that when the proportion of susceptible persons who used condoms habitually reached 90%of the total susceptible persons,the total number of infected persons at the end of 2020 would decrease by 83.23%.