Analysis Of The Infection Rate Of Hand, Foot And Mouth Disease In Mainland China

Hand,foot and mouth disease is a common infectious disease in children,which is mainly transmitted through feces and mouth.From 2008 to 2016,the incidence of HFMD in China has reached more than one million every year,which seriously threatens the health of children.A deep understanding of the transmission characteristics of these diseases can help to design and adjust effective immunization measures.However,the researches on the transmission characteristics of HFMD,especially the transmission rate,are very limited.In this paper,we collected the incidence data of HFMD in 31 provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government.We established the time series sir(time series susceptable infected recovered(TSIR))model,and applied the Markov chain Monte method Carlo,MCMC)to estimate the parameters in the model to analyze the monthly HFMD transmission rate and its seasonality.And then established linear regression model to analyze the effects of climate,school terms and spring festival travel rush on the transmission rate of HFMD in each region.The results showed that the transmission rate of HFMD in all provinces of China has obvious seasonality.According to the peak time of transmission rate of HFMD,the provinces can be divided into four regions: the peak time of HFMD transmission rate in southeast China is from February to March,and its seasonality is mostly related to spring festival travel rush;the peak time in northwest China is April,and its seasonality is mainly affected by relative humidity and spring festival travel rush;in north China,the peak period happens in May,which is associated with average temperature,summer vacation and spring festival travel rush;The peak of Tibetan Autonomous Region is in August,and its seasonal infection rate is not affected by the above factors.