Empirical Research On The Impact Of Gender Ratio On House Price In China

Due to the male-preference of traditional concepts,the squeeze of family planning policy and the advances in medical technology,the imbalance sex ratio at birth in China is very severe.Although it has been alleviated through regulation measures in recent years,it still exceeds the normal range defined by the United Nations.At the end of 2019,sex ratio of total population in China was 104.45.There was be 30.29 million more men than women.The data shows that male population is much larger than female in most cities in China.The sex structure is in an unbalanced state.The demand for real estate market is not only closely related to the population quantity,but also has a certain relationship with the population structure.The gender imbalance will cause marriage squeeze problem.In order to promote competitiveness in marriage market,people send signals to communicates the information of their comprehensive qualities through housing investment.A marriage decision model was established in this paper,based on the theory of status seeking and the signal model proposed by Spence.Using the panel data of 31 provinces from 2004 to 2018 and 280 cities from 2005 to 2012,this paper verifies the relationship,the transmission mechanism and the limitations between sex ratio and housing prices.The results show that housing investments have been proved to play the signal role in the marriage market.Housing demand had a partial mediating effect on the relationship between sex ratio and housing price.Furthermore,the relation of this kind of function is not linear.If a place has a great imbalance on sex ratio,the housing price may be continued to rise.A U-shaped relationship was found between sex ratio and housing price.The paper carried on research by groups.The empirical test results show that the relationships are regionally different.When we choose the level of homebuyers' wealth and education,the relationship has the threshold effect.Based on the above Conclusions,the paper will provide some corresponding recommendations.For example,we should speed up development of housing rental market and adjust measures not only to local conditions but also to specified periods.The results provide a good reference for exploring the root and forecasting the development of rising housing price,which have important theoretical and practical significance.