Modeling And Control Of Interacting Diseases On Multilayer Networks

The spread of contagions on contact networks has been the focus of propagation dynamics on complex networks.The propagation of interacting diseases,namely means the dynamic process in which two diseases spread in the same host population and interact reciprocally.The coupled dynamics of interacting diseases has led to many interesting phenomena different from those in the single disease scenario.After introducing the existing models,methods and conclusions about interacting diseases,this dissertation proposes an interactive spreading model for two SIR-type(Susceptible-Infected-Recovered)diseases and investigate their dynamics from the perspective of both epidemic thresholds as well as outbreaks The immunization characteristics of interacting diseases are further studied to show the influences of interactions between interactive diseases on immunization strategies.The details are as follows:1.Firstly,this dissertation proposes a model on a two-layer network.The two diseases propagate respectively on each layer,and the probability that an individual gets infected with one disease is influenced by whether this entity is infected with or in the recovery state of the other diseases.Based on this model,this dissertation derives the expression of the epidemic threshold,illustrates its evolution and shows the influences of different parameters on the the evolution.Further,two metrics,the maximum prevalence and the highest spreading speed,are proposed to describe the outbreak process.Through theoretical analysis and simulations,this dissertation illustrates the functions of various factors on the outbreak processes of interacting diseases,including the network topological parameters,percentage of initial infected individuals,percentage of overlapped network links,vulnerable individuals and the reciprocity of the two diseases.It is found that the seemingly important factor,the percentage of overlapped links,possesses no effect on both the epidemic threshold and outbreak process of interacting diseases,while the frequently overlooked factor,the percentage of vulnerable individuals,has significant effects.For the interaction of the two diseases,the variations of the outbreak scale and speed are comparatively more sensitive to the change of the interaction parameter related to the recovery state,which,from another perspective,implies that the recovery state of one disease is more influential on the propagation of the other disease than the infected state in an interactive spreading scenario.2.Furthermore,based on the interactive spreading model and analysis about the propagation process,the immune characteristics of interactive disease propagation are studied.Considering four different scenarios: mutual enhancement,mutual impairment,high percentage of vulnerable groups and low percentage of vulnerable groups,this dissertation investigates the relationships between structural centrality indices(such as degree and betweenness)and the ability of single node to propagate the disease,which aims to show the limitation of describing ability of single node to propagate the disease using classical centrality indices.Also,under the scenarios where the two diseases are mutually enhanced and impaired,this dissertation studies the performances of degree-based targeted immunization,betweenness-based immunization and acquaintance immunization,which illustrates the influences of interactions between diseases on certain immunization strategy.That is,when the two diseases are mutually enhanced,the performance gets better;when the two diseases are mutually impaired,the performance gets deteriorated.In addition,it is shown that under interactive spreading scenario,the influences of immunizing one disease on another disease depends on the specific interaction parameter space.Therefore,when designing or applying certain immunization strategy,the specific mechanism of interaction between diseases needs to be considered.