Study On The Distribution And Prediction Of Emberiza Jankowskii Based On Maxent Model

Climatic change is viewed as one of the threats to biodiversity protection. Emberiza jankowskii, as an endangered species, whose evaluation for the evolution under global climatic change is of great significance. In this paper, climate data from 1960 to 2010 and BCC-CSM1.1 based bioclimatic data in different RCPs are used as environment factors, with 59 geographic distribution information of Emberiza jankowskii from literatures as well as field investigations. Maxent model and ESRI’S Arc Map spatial analysis methods are used, the suitable habitats of Emberiza jankowskii have been estimated and the evolvement trend of the potential habitats has been analyzed. After eliminating the unsuitable area by the LUCC data, the potential distribution of Emberiza jankowskii was classified into 4 categories according the probability in AR4 of the IPCC. The main conclusions are as following:(1) According to the cumulative contribution rate, 8 environment variables are filtered out namely Annual Mean Temperature(BIO1), Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter(BIO11), Isothermality(BIO3), Precipitation of Wettest Month(BIO13), Precipitation of Driest Month(BIO14), Precipitation of Warmest Quarter(BIO18), Precipitation of Coldest Quarter(BIO19) and Precipitation Seasonality(BIO15).(2) From 2010 to 2070, under different RCPs scenarios, the high suitable area of Emberiza jankowskii distribution will have a trend to disappear, with serious shrink and fragmentation.(3) There are two gravity centers of suitable area locate at the west and the east, and suffering northward movement under each RCP scenario.(4) Jackknife test is used to show the result of variable importance, and the response curves illustrate how each environment variable affects the Maxent prediction. The results show that 8 main bioclimatic factors have double-peak and single-peak responding to the present probability of Emberiza jankowskii.(5) Emberiza jankowskii evaluated as EN through the statistic of suitable area variation combing other literatures is consistent with the evaluation of this species from the International Union for the Conservation of Nature.