The Expansion Analysis And Forecast Of Taiyuan Urban Construction Land Supported By SLEUTH Model

In order to better realize the sustainable development of the city,it is particularly important to analyze and predict the urban expansion and make rational planning and use of the city.This paper uses the collected multi-source data to analyze the expansion process and expansion driving force of Taiyuan urban construction land,and predicts the future expansion trend of Taiyuan urban construction land.(1)From the perspective of time and space,this paper analyzes the expansion process of Taiyuan urban construction land from 1990 to 2015.From the perspective of time,the expansion area,speed,intensity and dynamic attitude of construction land in Taiyuan urban area are basically consistent in the changing trend,and the expansion elastic coefficient first decreases and then increases.Among them,the expansion area,speed,strength and dynamic attitude were the largest from 2000 to 2005,and the expansion elastic coefficient was the largest from 2010 to 2015.From the perspective of space,after 1990,the expansion of construction land in Taiyuan urban area is mainly in the south direction,with a positive expansion trend in all quadrants.Xiaodian district and Jinyuan district are the main expansion areas.The fractal dimension of construction land in Taiyuan urban area is always lower than 1.5,and the overall trend is gradually decreasing,indicating that the spatial form of urban boundary tends to be regular and complete day by day.On the whole,the compactness shows a rising state,and the expansion type of construction land is dominated by marginal growth.(2)Using Logistic regression model,analyze the driving force of the Taiyuan city construction land expansion,known in Taiyuan city construction land expansion by nature,neighborhood and the social economic factor to influence the actions of three aspects,neighborhood factor effect is larger,the influence of natural and social economic factors on the influence of the construction land expansion is relatively small.Among them,the distance from construction land has the most obvious effect on the expansion of construction land in Taiyuan urban area,and its regression coefficient is negative.The closer the distance from construction land,the greater the expansion probability.(3)According to the input data of the optimal resolution,SLEUTH model was established to obtain the optimal combination of control coefficients: diffusion coefficient is 1,breed coefficient is 32,spreed coefficient is 97,slope coefficient is 58,and road gravity coefficient is 84.The SLEUTH model was used to reconstruct the spatial growth process of construction land in Taiyuan city from 1990 to 2015.Five control coefficients were analyzed,and it was found that the propagation coefficient had the largest impact on the expansion of construction land in Taiyuan city,followed by the road gravity coefficient,and the diffusion coefficient and reproduction coefficient had a small impact.(4)Through SLEUTH model,four scenario prediction schemes are set to predict the growth scope of construction land in Taiyuan city in 2030,and analyze the future growth trend of urban space.Under the natural development scenario,the development of construction land is almost unlimited,showing a disorderly expansion;The urban planning scenario is developed in strict accordance with the direction of urban planning,in line with the wishes of the government,and effectively controls the growth of the city.The cultivated land protection scenario effectively protects the cultivated land resources,but the protection of other resources needs to be strengthened.The ecological protection scenario is more powerful for the environmental protection in the ecological protection area and less powerful for the protection of arable land and other resources.