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Qinling North Characteristics Of Climate Change And Human Driving Force Difference Analysis

Posted on:2012-12-09Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:J BaiFull Text:PDF
GTID:2190330335471894Subject:Physical geography
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Qinling Mountains are not only the separatrix of the warm temperate zone and the subtropical zone in the east of Asia, but also the dividing line of the southern and northern part in China. They are the highest one in east-west trend mountains in the central eastern part of the mainland of China. The major ridge part of Qinling Mountains are located in Shaanxi province. It's the transition region with obvious demarcation, and it's also a vulnerable, sensitive area. Guanzhong and Shaannan region lied in two sides of Qinling Mountains used to be the research objects in the article. We disscussed the process in regional response to the global climate change, which played an important part in utilizing resources reasonably, economic development, ecological environment protection, disaster prevention and mitigation, and adaptation to the negative effects in global change.Based on system anlaysing on the regional climate change status and the human driving forces at home and abroad, we carried out field investigation. Then, we collected the meteorological statistics from 1961 to 2009, and the social-economic data. After that, we ascertained the human driving forces in temperature and precipitation changing in Guanzhong and Shaannan region. Due to related principles of statistic analysis, we revealed the intensity of human activities which taking part in the climate change, and the main influencing factors altering before and after the temperture abrupt changing. The main conclusion are as follows.(1) From 1961 to 2009, the mean temperture of Guanzhong and Shaannan region is 12.24 and 13.76 centigrade seperately. The general trend of temperature appeared to be warmer in these two regions, especially in the 1980s. On the other hand, degree difference of the temperature change in Guanzhong region was deeper than Shaannan. Using the method of Mann-kendall test, Sliding t test and Cramer test, we considered the time length of 5,10,15 to detect the year of climate abrupt change, which happened in 1997 in both Guanzhong and Shaannan region. Employing in the way of cumulative above-regions curve and Mann-kendall trend analysis, we knew that the temperature reduction was obvious in Guanzhong region than Shaannan in the 1960s, but opposite from 1970s till now. In the part of temperture regional changing in Guanzhong, the thermal belt appeared in Xi'an and its vicinity, and the low temperture center occurred in Taibai county in Baoji. The high temperture center of Shaannan appeared in Ankang county. At last, using Mann-kendall trend analysis to calculate 62 counties in Guanzhong and Shaannan, we found that the temperture in Zhouzhi and Xi'an incresed faster, and in Shaannan Hanzhong city also displayed a rapid heating area.(2) The precipitation decreased during its fluctuating in Guanzhong and Shaannan region. Comparing to the mean value, it changed a lot in Guanzhong than Shaannan. The abrupt change of precipitation happened in Guanzhong region in 1985; Moreover, it happened in 1990 in Shaannan rengion. In the way of Mann-kendall trend analysis, the precipitation in Guanzhong decreased 1.52 millimetre each year, which was 1.81 millimetre in Shaannan. In the trend of decades, it was obvious in the decrasing from 2000 to 2009 in Guanzhong region. What's more, the precipitation reduced in other decades in the two sides of Qinling Moutains, but the trend was not obvious. The average annual precipitation of highest and lowest displayed in Taibai and Dali county in Guanzhong region, and emerged in Zhenba and Luonan county in Shaannan region. The decreasing trends of precipitation in Qinling Mountaions reduced from west to east generally, and incresed little in east even.(3) The human driving forces to the temperture change in Guanzhong region could be included as follows:urban and rural economic development, industrial and agricultural development level, and ecological maintenance level. Ecological maintance level, life and ecological water consumption, and industrial water consumption formed the human driving forces to precipitation change together in Guanzhong region. Though human driving forces to the temperture change in Shaannan could be abstracted as urban and rural residents living conditions, agricultural development and underlaying surface properties. Otherwise, urban construction condition, quantity of production and life-water made up the factors in the effection of precipitation change in Shaannan region. In the considering of human driving forces under higher loads, we found that Guanzhong owed much faster speed in industrial and agricultural development, urbanization rate increasing, land use various, house construction and road laying, and the quanlity of fossil fuel burning than Shaannan region. Thus, the above explained why the climate change was much vigorous in Guanzhong region than Shaannan. Finally, the scores in the human driving forces to climate change in two sides of Qinling Moutains were calculated.We put forward that the effection of human driving forces enhanced in the recent 20 years, especially in temperture change. Furthermore, the effection became stronger after 2000, reaching a peak in 2008.(4) In the method of Gray Relation Analysis, the human driving forces before and after temperature abrupt change during 1989 to 2008 in Guanzhong and Shaannan region had been disscussed. We found that the population is the main factor influcing temperature change in Guanzhong and Shaannan. The urban construction process played an important part in climate change in Guanzhong. But connecting to agricultural development closely in Shaannan. Moreover, it had high relevancy with industry power consumption, especially in Guanzhong region. After temperature abrupt change, people in both two regions disturbed the natural environment a lot. They put off much more greenhouse gases during farming, industry, and urban development. They altered the land utilization. Vegetation coverage changed a lot. Forest decreased, which changing to increase the emission of carbon dioxide, leading the temperature increasing. On the other side, we discovered that the construction of city in Guanzhong was much faster than that in Shaannan, and animal husbandry displayed opposite. In addation, the industry power consumption made a large contribution to temperature change in Shaannan region, which was related to the policy in promoting middle and small enterprises in industry.The researches above has shown that huaman actions were becoming stronger and stronger. In the background of global climate change, we should initiate the life way of low carbon and conserve the precious resources. It is really a big burden at present.
Keywords/Search Tags:Climate change, Human driving forces, Guanzhong region, Shaannan region
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