Long-term And Short-term Research On The Quantile Effect Of Chinese Trade And Environment

In the context of globalization,the impact of economic growth on the ecological environment has not only been confined to one country?or region?.The rapid economic growth has brought serious pollution problems to various countries,especially in developing countries.Now that China is in a critical period of economic transformation.Correctly understanding the impact of foreign trade on the ecological environment is of great significance for realizing the sustainable development of China's economy.The article firstly summarizes the theoretical and empirical research on the trade environment effect of some scholars.Then it introduces the theoretical model of trade-environment effect and deduce the quantile effect of trade-environment,including the scale effect,structure effect and technical effect of foreign trade.Afterwards,it gave a detailed introduction to China's situation of foreign trade and the ecological environment,emphasizing the differences in foreign trade and ecological environment between Chinese provinces.In the empirical analysis,this paper establishes the trade environment quantile equation,selecting the panel data of 30 provinces in China except Tibet,and uses the industrial SO₂ per capita as the environmental pollution index,and carries out a systematic regression analysis on the data.The long-term and short-term analysis of the trade environment effect in the mixed-effects model shows that foreign trade has deteriorated the local ecological environment both in the short-term and long-term,however,the ecological environment of the sample points has been improved at some of the quantiles in the long-term and short-term analysis of the trade environment effect in the quantile model.Accordingly the paper provides corresponding suggestions for China's environmental and trade policies.The innovation of this paper is to use the research of previous scholars as the theoretical basis,introduce the quantile regression technique,establish the quantile effect model of trade environment,systematically analyze the influence of trade environment effect in different pollution degree areas,and expand the average empirical study of the effects of trade on the environment of previous scholars.In the case of considering the heterogeneity of the province,the regression results show that it is difficult to determine the significant impact of foreign trade on environmental pollution,or confused with the effects of provinces and time.