Spatiotemporal Evolution And Simulation Of Production-living-ecological Land In Foshan City

With the rapid progress of industrialization and urbanization,urban land continued to spread in China,and a large number of agricultural land and ecological land was occupied,resulting in the imbalance of urban spatial structure and the deterioration of ecological environment.In order to build a land space pattern coordinated to production,living and ecology,the report of the 18th national congress of the communist party of China clearly put forward the overall requirements of promoting intensive and efficient production space,livable and moderate living space and beautiful ecological space.Since the reform and opening up,Foshan's economic and society had been developing rapidly,but at the same time,there were problems such as the distribution of construction land was scattered and disorderly,agricultural land decreased sharply and ecological environment deteriorated,the spatial-temporal evolution and driving factors of production-living-ecological land in Foshan City were deeply discussed,the simulated prediction and spatial zoning were carried out,it can provide a basis for the formulation of land use policy in Foshan City and a reference for land space optimization and ecological civilization construction in rapidly urbanized areas.Taking Foshan City as an example,this paper adopted remote sensing interpretation data in 1990,2000 and 2016,the spatial distribution and quantity of production-living-ecological land in Foshan city were identified by functional space classification method,based on the methods of land-use dynamic degree,transfer matrix,Gini Coefficient,ESDA and center of gravity migration theory,this paper made a concrete analysis of spatial-temporal evolution of production-living-ecological land in Foshan City from 1990 to 2016,Fragstats 4.2 was used to measure and analyze the landscape pattern of production-living-ecological land in Foshan City from two dimensions of landscape level and patch type level.In addition,combining with slope,elevation,traffic and socio-economic data,the driving factors of production-living-ecological land evolution in Foshan City were discussed by qualitative and quantitative methods,on this basis,CA-Markov model was used to simulate and predict the situation of production-living-ecological land of Foshan City in 2020 and 2030,finally,natural discontinuity classification method was used to divide the production-living-ecological functional space of Foshan City and corresponding control countermeasures was put forward.The results showed that:(1)From 1990 to 2016,the change area of production-living-ecological land in Foshan City was 1 426.53 km~2,accounting for 37.56%of the total land area.Living land continued to increase,production land reduced significantly,but ecological land was relatively stable.The transfer area of production land was the largest,mainly converted into the living land,transfered to take the ecological land primarily,the convert out and convert in of living land and ecological land take the production land primarily.(2)From 1990 to 2016,the distribution of production land was the most uniform in Foshan City,the distributions of living land and ecological land were quite different.The global Moran's I indexes of increasing production land,decreasing living land,increasing ecological land and decreasing ecological land were 0.212 1,0.144 0,0.401 5 and 0.260 3respectively,the positive correlations of spatial distribution were significant,showing the centralized distribution of adjacent towns,while the agglomeration effects of decreasing production land and increasing living land were not obvious.During the study period,the center of production land in Foshan City shifted to the west continuously,the center of living land was basically located in the central geographical location of Chancheng District with the minimum migration distance,the center of ecological land was located in the west-most part of Foshan City and the trend of northward migration was obvious.(3)From 1990 to 2016,the landscape segmentation index,Shannon evenness index and Shannon diversity index of production-living-ecological land in Foshan City increased from 0.704 6,0.783 1,0.860 3 to 0.878 9,0.986 1,1.083 4 respectively,the segmentation of landscape spatial distribution was deepened,the heterogeneity of landscape increased,and the landscape types of production-living-ecological land show a trend of balanced development.From the perspective of patch types,the production land and ecological land in Foshan City were constantly fragmented and occupied,and the fragmentation was intensified,while the living land was constantly spreading and expanding.(4)Economic development,industrial structure,residents'lives,population and transportation were the main social and economic factors that lead to the evolution of production-living-ecological land in Foshan City.The proportion of production land and living land in Foshan City decreased with the increase of slope and elevation,while the proportion of ecological land continued to rise.The farther from railway,the proportion of production land decreased continuously,while the proportion of living land and ecological land fluctuate rose.The farther from the main highway,the proportions of production land and living land were decreasing,while the proportion of ecological land was increasing.Administrative center had spatial attraction effect on living land,but spatial exclusion effect on production land and ecological land.(5)From 2016 to 2030,the production-living-ecological land of Foshan City will generally develop along the spatial pattern in 2016,and the difference will be insignificant,the production land and ecological land will decrease,while the living land will show a tendency of agglomeration and expansion.Among the secondary land types,the land used for industrial and mining production will increase,the land used for agricultural production will reduce by the most,but it will be still the main land type in the region,the land used for urban and rural living will expand rapidly,the land used for green ecology and water ecology will decrease continuously.