Research On The Bullwhip Effect Of Supply Chain Network

Supply chain management is an important part of the economic development of information enterprises in the 21^st century.In the past,“Vertical Integration”promoted the management mode of independent completion of raw materials,parts and final products,aiming to control the whole process of raw materials supply,production and manufacturing,and sales and profit of enterprises.And the emergence of“horizontal integration”to abandon the traditional management pattern of independent design,manufacture and sales,to start building by suppliers,manufacturers,wholesalers,retailers and consumers of strategic cooperative partnership,supply chain management is“horizontal integration”core idea concrete manifestation.Supply chain network“bullwhip effect”is the end of the supply chain demand information in supply chain management along the supply chain step by step to increase a phenomenon,the bullwhip effect problem will lead to each mode enterprises of supply chain can not accurately grasp the demand data,and the same time as the disturbance of manufacturers plan will also appear unbalanced inventory backlog or shortage of the supply chain operation,the increasing cost of business.Therefore,how to reduce and control bullwhip effect is of great theoretical and practical significance for improving efficient economic operation of supply chain system and enhancing core competitiveness of enterprises,In order to weaken the bullwhip effect of supply chain network,the research contents of this paper mainly include:First this paper introduces the application of time series analysis of supply chain demand forecasting methods and steps,structures,linear model of stationary time series ARMA（p,q）forecast model parameter estimation and the specific train of thought,through the case analysis confirmed that the ARMA（p,q）model algorithm is better than that of exponential smoothing prediction methods,such as demand for the supply chain enterprise information to provide more accurate forecasting method in order to weaken the bullwhip effect.Followed by a detailed discussion about the quantitative analysis of bullwhip effect,this paper builds the mathematical model of the bullwhip effect by applying the method of variance ratio,specific performance for manufacturers received order variance and retailers in the face of demand variance ratio,and discuss the analysis of the related parameters of p and L,ρto gaining the influence degree of variability,again through the bullwhip effect of approximate quantitative analytical study the bullwhip effect in supply chain focus（decentralized）information.Is given at the end of the paper from the perspective of business inventories,abate and control the phenomenon of bullwhip effect inventory control strategy optimization method,first order OUT unified supply chain each node enterprise strategy of the concrete implementation steps,and then discuss respectively based on the demand of ABC classification,as well as the safety stock of time optimization algorithm,then proposed based on（L-CSL）inventory control strategy,establish expression at the annual total cost as the objective function,the mathematical model of the customer service level as the constraint condition,the maximum minimum mathematical theory is used to determine the order quantity,the safety factor,fixed lead time of the optimal solution,in order to produce the total cost of the minimum value,the inventory control optimization strategy of supply chain system is realized,and the effectiveness of the above optimization strategy is verified through Simulink simulation experiment.