Security Risk Assessment Of Water And Soil Resources In Heilongjiang Province Based On System Dynamics

Water and soil resources provide basic guarantees for human survival and development.Along with the rapid development of the economy and society,problems such as insufficient supply of water and soil resources,increased demand,unbalanced matching and l ow utilization efficiency have led to the consequent reduction of water and soil resources to people’s lives,industrial and agricultural production,economic development and ecological environment.Resource security risk have become the key factor restricting regional socio-economic development,and the focus of various contradictions.The security risk of water and soil resources refers to the risk arising from the supply and demand of water and soil resources and the contradiction between the supply and demand of water and soil resources,which may result in the lack of supply guarantee.The evaluation of the security risk of water and soil resources protection can show the resource endowment of the region,and provide quantitative indicators for the development of industry and agriculture in the region.Therefore,analyzing the utilization status of water and soil resources in the region,rationally evaluating the utilization efficiency of water and soil resources and the security risk of water and soil r esources have become the focus of attention in the field of water and soil resources.The simulation and evaluation of the soil and water resources system based on the SD method can predict the development trend of the quantity and quality of the future re sources.The water and soil resources utilization efficiency is used as a static indicator reflecting the effective development and utilization of water and soil resources,and combined with SD which can reflect the dynamic relationship between water and soil resources can comprehensively reflect the characteristics of regional water and soil resources and further make corresponding security risk assessment.Therefore,this paper conducts research on water and soil resources security risk based on system dynamics,in order to provide a basis for future regional planning and development.The specific research contents and conclusions are as follows:(1)Construction and simulation of SD model of water and soil resources in Heilongjiang Province.This study constructs the SD model of soil and water resources,simulates the regional water and soil resources system,simulates the interaction of regional water and soil resources with economic and social factors,and the evolution of regional water and soil resourc es under different climatic conditions,and the development of future resource quantity and quality.Trends are forecasted and analyzed accordingly.Through the SD model simulation of the water and soil resources system,it can be seen that if the utilizat ion of water and soil resources in Heilongjiang Province continues to develop according to the status quo,it will face a certain degree of water and soil resources security risk in the future.(2)Evaluation of water and soil resources utilization efficie ncy in Heilongjiang Province.According to the internal complexity of the water and soil resources system,the water and soil resources utilization process is divided into two sub-stages of water and soil resources development and economic benefit transformation.Considering the relationship between each stage and the input-output weight structure,the two-stage water and soil resource utilization efficiency based on cooperative game theory is constructed.The calculation model is used to evaluate the overall utilization of water and soil resources and the efficiency of each stage in 13 prefecture-level cities in Heilongjiang Province,and to construct a two-stage matrix diagram of water and soil use efficiency.The results show that the overall development of water and soil resources in Heilongjiang Province is relatively high,but the economic benefits of water and soil resources in different cities are not balanced,and the overall efficiency of water and soil resources utilization is low,regional differences are large,and water and soil resources are not effectively optimized.Faced with a certain degree of risk of water and soil conservation.(3)Evaluation of grain production efficiency in Heilongjiang Province under the constraints of water and soil resources.As an indispensable resource for agricultural production and economic and social development,water and soil resources are related to regional food security and sustainable development.As the future water and soil resources security risk in Heil ongjiang province will further aggravate the contradiction between water and soil resources and food demand,considering the limited nature of water and soil resources and the upcoming protection risk,this study explores the efficiency and driving factors of grain production under the constraints of water and soil resources.Maintaining food security,analyzing the utilization of water and soil resources and safeguarding risk analysis have great practical significance.The analysis results show that there is still space for development of agricultural water and soil resources utilization efficiency in Heilongjiang Province,and technological progress is the most important factor restricting the grain production level in Heilongjiang Province.There is a gap between Heilongjiang Province’s technological progress level and other parts of China.(4)Risk assessment of water and soil resources security in Heilongjiang province.In view of the imbalance between supply and demand of water and soil resources in Hei longjiang province and the use of low overall efficiency,this study constructs a water and soil resources security risk assessment index system from the perspective of supply and demand,and uses system dynamics model and variable fuzzy set theory to research on the risk assessment of water and soil resources protection in Heilongjiang province.The research results show that regional water and soil resources have a certain degree of imbalance between supply and demand and ecological risk.The risk of water and soil resources security in different levels is fluctuating between levels II-III.At the same time,if the utilization of water and soil resources in Heilongjiang Province continues to develop according to the status quo,the future Will face a certa in degree of water and soil conservation risk.(5)The water and soil resources security risk management plan of Heilongjiang province is optimized.According to the possible risk,this study uses the system dynamics model to analyze the causal trees of representative drivers of water and soil resources security risk,and changes the net irrigation quota,industrial water quota,forest land area,annual change rate of cultivated land area and industry.The variables such as total output value simulate the evolution process of water and soil resources in five scenarios in arid climate,and integrate the situation that can minimize the risk of regional water and soil resources evolution.By simulating the comprehensive situation,it can be seen that the situation can effectively improve the utilization of regional water and soil resources,and appropriately reduce the risk that regional water and soil resources may face,and provide a theoretical basis for the future avoidance of regional water and soil resou rces security risk.