Climate Change And Its Impact On Agriculture In Taiyuan City In Recent 30 Years

Global climate change characterized by climate warming has become a recognized fact in the past 1000 years,and the intensity of climate change is deepening,and the scope of impact is gradually expanding.This trend has brought a severe test to China's sustainable economic and social development,especially because of the particularity of agricultural growth attributes,the impact of climate factors such as temperature,precipitation,sunshine and so on is particularly critical.Therefore,the analysis of the characteristics and trends of climate change and its impact on agriculture is of great practical significance not only for the objective evaluation of the impact of climate change on food production and agricultural development in the past,but also for the agricultural sector to formulate effective measures to mitigate and adapt to climate change.Under the background of rural revitalization,Taiyuan was approved in early 2018 to build a national sustainable development agenda innovation demonstration area,promote food production to adapt to climate change,and achieve sustainable agricultural development is an indispensable part of this historical process.Taking Taiyuan City as an example,this paper uses the monthly mean temperature,precipitation and sunshine hours from 1985 to 2017,and chooses many meteorological statistical methods,such as moving average,M-K mutation test analysis,wavelet transform analysis,to analyze the characteristics of climate change in these 33 years.By constructing multiple regression equation,the effects of various meteorological factors and their change rates on agriculture are analyzed.The output variables of agriculture are represented by the total value of agricultural production and the efficiency of agricultural production,and the level and state of agricultural development are quantitatively defined.The results show that:(1)the annual average temperature and spring,summer and autumn show an obvious upward trend;the annual precipitation has no obvious change trend,among which the autumn precipitation has a certain increase.In the periodic analysis,the winter precipitation has an obvious period of more than 8 years,which is a change of Wet-drywet-dry-wet;the annual sunshine hours have no obvious change trend on the whole,but in spring.The seasonal variation trend of sunshine hours in four seasons is consistent with that of annual sunshine hours.and there are obvious alternating changes of three periods on the scale of more than 13 a.(2)In the regression process of explaining variables with total agricultural production value,the coefficient value of temperature is small,indicating that the degree of influence is small,but the coefficient value is positive,indicating that the increase of temperature will promote the increase of agricultural output value;in the regression process of explaining variables with agricultural production efficiency,the coefficient of temperature and sunshine is positive and there is little difference,indicating that the two factors play a great role in agricultural efficiency.Small approximation,the coefficients of the two change rates are negative,indicating that the more drastic the change,the less conducive to the improvement of agricultural production efficiency.(3)According to the results of quantitative analysis,relevant countermeasures and suggestions are put forward from five aspects: policy orientation,production orientation,technology orientation,prevention orientation and propaganda orientation to guide agricultural production development to better adapt to climate change.