Study On Adaptive Capacity Of Agriculture To Climate Change-Cropping Pattern And Technologies Perspective

Climate change is affecting the world's agriculture significantly. How to adapt climate change is becoming an urgent task for society. Carrying out studies on agricultural adaptive technologies and measures (including agricultural structural adjustment/crop pattern adjustment, improvements in breeding and cultivation etc.) are very important for decreasing the adverse impacts of climate change and ensuring future food security. Firstly, this paper targeted the primary grain sown ratio and established a non-linear Logit model of changes in crop sown ratios to examine the effects of farm characteristics of on crop choice and to predict changes in sown ratio under A2 and B2 climatic scenarios. Then, through a case study of adaptive technologies in Ningxia using the DSSAT crop model, the effect of cultivated management and breeding was simulated and assessed quantitively. Finally, in order to reduce the obstacles of financing and innovative technologies, new idea about adaptation based on market mechanisms were identified. This work will provide scientific basis for increasing agricultural adaptive capacity and decision-making on adaptation to climate change. The results are as follows:(1) From 1987 to 2004, the rice sown ratio increased obviously in northern China, especially in Heilongjiang province, but decreased in some provinces of eastern and Southern China. The wheat sown ratio reduced more than 10% in Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang regions, and there was a increase of wheat sown ratio in Tibet, Guizhou and Henan province. The maize sown ratio enhanced across the whole of China.(2) The analysis results of temperature and precipitation from 1978 to 2004 showed that the annual average temperature has increased evidently in north China, the largest temperature-increased in Heilongjiang and Jilin province; but the annual average temperature decreased in Southern China which included Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Guangdong and Guangxi provinces. When it comes to the changes in precipitation, there are decreasing trends of precipitation in eastern and southern China, and in the rest of China, the precipitation increased.(3) The climatic, socio-economic and political factors that affect the crop planting. According to the comprehensive analysis of impacts of price, yield, past sown ratio, population density, annual mean temperature and precipitation, the predicted results of crop sown ratio under A2 and B2 climatic scenarios were calculated: (a) From 2012 to 2030, the rice sown ratio in Yunnan, Anhui, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Sichuan, Shanghai, Heilongjiang, Liaoning and Jilin province would decrease rapidly and then change a little, and decrease in Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi, Jiangxi and Hubei province. However, the rice sown ratio would show an increase and then level off in Hebei, Henan, Shandong and Tianjin. In Ningxia and Guizhou provinces, the rice sown ratios have a little change. (b) In China, the wheat sown ratio shows three kinds of trends. (â…°) The wheat sown ratio will decrease and level off until to 2020 in Anhui, Jiangsu, Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Tianjin, Gansu, Shannxi, Xinjiang, Qinghai and Shanxi provinces. (â…±) In Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia, Guizhou, Yunnan and Sichuan province, the wheat sown ratio would increase and level off (with a increasing-level off and decreasing trend in Beijing and Shanghai province). (c) There is an increasing trend in maize sown ratio in China. (d) Based on the analysis of crop sown ratios in the same provinces, we found that the farmers'crop choices are different in different provinces under future A2 and B2 climatic scenarios, but most provinces would increase the ratio of maize sown.(4) In the 2020s and 2050s, under the B2 scenario with CO2 fertilization and keeping field management and crop variety the same as those in 2005, the growing periods would shorten by 5% and 3%. Changing sown date and potato variety could alter the impacts of climate change on potato. In the 2020s if the sown date advances 5~20days, the potato yield increased 3%~8%. In the 2050s, if the sown date advanced by 5 days and 10 days, the potato yield increased 2% and 5%, respectively. Postponing the sown date by 5 days and 10 days decreased the yield by 2.69% and 8.86% in the 2020s. Planting lower temperature sensitive new varieties would increase the potato yield. On the contrary, the yield would decrease.(5) The above results indicated that crop pattern adjustment; sown date changes and shifting to planting new varieties are feasible agricultural technologies and measures to adapt to climate change. Meanwhile, the effects of technologies and measures can be analyzed by using model this type of model. Finally, this paper brings forward a new adaptation project mechanism based on market to realize international cooperation. The developing countries can enhance the adaptive capacity by adaptation projects and produce carbon emission reduction indirectly, and developed countries will buy the carbon emission reduction at the international market.