Study On The Impact Of Climate Change On The Distribution Of Chinese Rape Production

Rapeseed is the widely grown in the world.In 2016.the area planted of rapeseed was 7,331.07 thousand hectares in China,accounting for 21.75% of the world's rapeseed planting area.Rapeseed has a variety of functions and values and has always occupied an important position in China's agricultural production.With the changes in natural conditions and the socio-economic environment,China's rapeseed production is facing a severe situation.In the early days,many scholars paid great attention to the research on the influence of socio-economic environment and other factors on rapeseed production.Many effective suggestions were also put forward,but the basic conditions of rapeseed growth depends on the influence of climate factors were ignored.In 2014,the Fifth Assessment Report(AR5)published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)pointed out that from 1880 to 2012,the global sea and land temperature increased by an average of 0.85 °C.As global climate change intensifies,scholars are increasingly paying attention to the impact of climate change on rapeseed production.The general rise in global temperatures and the increase in precipitation imbalance have made the areas that are suitable for rapeseed production no longer suitable for rapeseed production and they have affected the growth of rapeseed during the growing season,which in turn affects rapeseed production.On April 22,2016,175 countries including China signed the Paris Agreement.It is foreseeable that climate changes will have a more significant impact on rapeseed production.what is the extent of the impact of climate change on rapeseed production? What is the relationship between the evolution of China's rapeseed production layout and temperature and precipitation? How to deal with the impact of climate change and even extreme climate on rapeseed production? In the complex international market environment,in order to ensure the stability of domestic oil use,it is particularly important to study the impact mechanism of climate change on the evolution of rapeseed production layout.This paper firstly uses the production concentration index,production scale index,production concentration index,efficiency comparative advantage index,scale comparative advantage index,comprehensive comparative advantage index to measure the change trend of rapeseed production layout,analyzes the evolution trend of Chinese rapeseed production layout and the characteristics of temperature and precipitation change,then constructed the spatial econometric model estimate the impact of factors on the distribution of rapeseed production.Analyzed the influence of temperature and precipitation on distribution of rapeseed production.Finally,proposed policy suggestion according to the research conclusions.The results show that: 1.The distribution of Chinese rapeseed production has a tendency to shift to the north and expand to the west.2.There is spatial agglomeration in China's rapeseed production layout and it is dynamic.The rapeseed production layout has undergone changes from aggregation to dispersion and re-aggregation in spatial correlation.3.The rapeseed planting in adjacent provinces and cities presents spatial aggregation characteristics.4.Temperature has a positive impact on the production layout of Chinese rapeseed and the temperature rises to promote the expansion of rapeseed planting area.Based on the research conclusions of this paper,in order to optimize the layout of Chinese rapeseed production,to improve the production capacity of rapeseed,and to ensure the safety of domestic food oil and oil,put forward some countermeasures and suggestions: 1.Scientifically formulate the layout planning of rapeseed production,adapt to local conditions and play comparative advantages.2.Focus on rapeseed production,Establish key protected areas.3.Steadily promote the production of rapeseed in the “extended area”,expand the area of rapeseed planting.4.Pay attention to the research and development of new varieties of rapeseed and improve the adaptability of rapeseed to climate change.