Judgement Of Technology Life Cycle Based On Entropy

Technology is the first productive force,whoever stands at the forefront technology can have core competitiveness.For the country,it is timely to learn about international trends and domestic progress in various technology fields,establish key research directions,actively adjust strategies,guide and support emerging technologies,continuously innovate and improve mature technologies,and reduce R&D on eliminated technologies.Similarly,for enterprises,if they want to enhance their competitiveness and market position,they must formulate corresponding strategies,adjust their directions,establish key technologies,and stop the R&D on eliminated technologies in a timely manner.Today's economic era is changing with each passing day,and the competition among countries and enterprises is constantly heating up.Whoever can master core technologies will be able to grasp the right to speak and take the initiative.Whoever can escape from backward technology will be able to avoid becoming passive.So leaders should correctly judge the development trend of technology and actively adopt appropriate strategies to expand their advantages or avoid risks.The technology life cycle is an important indicator that can reflect the trend of technology development,allowing policymakers to know whether the technology is in emerging,growth,maturity,or recession,and they can grasp the duration of each stage to help the country and enterprises make strategic deployments more scientifically.However,the existing methods for judging the technology life cycle have shortcomings in accuracy and simplicity.Therefore,this paper proposes a more optimal method and establishes an index based on entropy to judge the technology life cycle simply and effectively.In the course of development,technology always accompanies the transfer of technology paradigms.From the old technology paradigm stage to the coexistence stage of the old and new paradigm,and finally to the new paradigm stage,the technical system will experience an orderly state to disorderly state and finally to orderly state.This change can be measured by"entropy".The more orderly a system is,the smaller the entropy is,the more disordered,the greater the entropy.This article proves that there are entropy changes in the process of technological development through the study of two technological revolutions in the modern history of the world,the result shows that at different stages of development,the degree of confusion in the system is also different.Therefore,by deeply analyzing the characteristics of entropy values,we can distinguish different technology life cycle stages.Based on this conclusion,we propose an index based on entropy:H?Y?=-?ⁿ_i=₁P_ilogP_i.The entropy value is calculated by extracting the number of patent applicants and the number of patent applications for each year,and the technology life cycle is further judged based on the evolution curve of entropy and the characteristics that should be in different phases.In addition,TFT-LCD?thin-film transistor liquid crystal display technology?,CRT?cathode ray manifestation tube?and NBS?nano-biosensor?were selected to verify the rationality of the index,and the calculation results are consistent with previous studies.This paper selects the additive manufacturing technology to conduct empirical research.Firstly,through patent analysis,we can understand its technology distribution and evolution.Then we use the entropy index to determine the life cycle of additive manufacturing technology:the emerging period?1976-1989?,the steady growth period?1990-2000?,and the growth period?2001-present?.At present,additive manufacturing technology is still in its growth stage.The demand for additive manufacturing is constantly expanding,and there is a broad prospect for development.China must actively guide and support the development of additive manufacturing technology and seize the high ground of technology in the future.