The Influence On The Rainfall And Wind Gust In Guangdong Province From The Landing And Offshore Typhoons

Landing and offshore typhoons often attack the coastal area of Guangdong province,causing severe rainfall and strong wind,which result in serious natural disasters and threat people's life in coastal area.However,the researches on the influence on the rainfall and wind gust in coastal area of Guangdong province from the landing and offshore typhoons are very rare.In the operational rainfall forecasting,due to the lacking of the useful and scientific forecasting method,the forecasters rely much on the traditional numerical model and their own experience.In the analysis of the wind gust,the researches are very few because of the lacking data.Therefore,exploring the characterestics and distribution of the rainfall and wind gust due to tropical cyclones is of great meaning in science and engineering.This paper focus on the landing and offshore typhoons that have impact on the coastal area in Guangdong province and come up with a statistical forecasting method,which combines the historic rainfall induced by typhoon with the numerical model's rainfall forecast.The new method is evaluated in the operational rainfall forecasting in Guangdong province and the performance of the method is compared with the traditional numeric model.The comparison shows that the numerical model has severe shortcoming while forecasting the rainfall in the coastal city and cannot predict the range or the distribution pattern of rainfall in the city properly,while the new method can provide more reliable forecasts.Meanwhile,this paper takes Shenzhen city as an example and analyzes the spatial distribution pattern of the wind gust induce by typhoon.It is found that while the typhoon is landing in the Pearl River Estuary or landing in Western Guangdong,the east coastal area in Shenzhen will generally suffer stronger wind gust than the west area,although the east area has a relative farther distance to the landing typhoon.Besides,by analyzing the gust factors at several coastal weather stations in Shenzhen,this paper also discusses the seasonal wind characteristics in Shenzhen.