Wind Energy Projection And Assessment In Guangdong Province Based On Multi-model Ensemble

With the continuous comsumption of fossil energy around the world,the development and utilization of renewable energy such as tidal energy,wind energy and solar energy have become the consensus of all mankind.Wind power industry had been developing rapidly due to the support policies and the large amount of funding provided by government.The total power generated by wind and the ratio of wind power industry in China have been overcompleted compared with the requirement proposed in the 13th Five-Year Plan.Furthermore,the installation of wind power needs to be enlarged according to th latest 14th Five-Year Plan in China.It is inevitable to evaluate the wind energy resoures in order to complete the integral energy planning.At the same time,the uncertainty of wind woud cause huge difficulties for the whole assessment process.Therefore,estimation of the maximum wind speed in the recurrence interval could be used to avoid the detrimental impacts on wind power constructions caused by extreme weathers before the assessment of wind energy.Multi-model ensemble method was ultilized in this research to get the projection and assessment of the future wind energy changes in Guangdong Province.The first step included information obtainment from the reanalysis data of ERA and five region climate models of CORDEX-EA and consided them as observation data and simulation data,respectively.After that,the IVS and Yule-Kendall skewness of the five region climate models needed to be calculated.Ranked the effects of these five models and certained the weight and finally got a new Multi-model ensemble.After vertifying the accuracy of wind speed data with the usage of correlation coefficient and root mean square error,it is found that not only the precision of the model could be improved but also the uncertsinty of projection could be decreased with the usage of multi-model ensemble method.Secondly,the observation data was used to certain the distribution of wind speed and seasonal wind energy during the historical period of time in Guangdong.It was demonstrated that the wind speed distribution feature in Guangdong was a decline trend from coastal areas to inland ones gradually and the trend would sightly rise when speaking the mountain areas.Besides,the seasonal wind energy showed a rich state in the second half of the year and a scarce one in the first half of the year.Thirdly,it had proved that the vast majority of stations could meet the basic requirements of wind power hierarchy and construction design according to the probability of maximum wind speed in the future assessment period reemerged by the maximum wind speed in the historical period.However,the wind energy projection assessment of two offshore stations(Shangchuan Island,Nanao)need to take the negative impacts caused by extreme weathers into consideration.Finally,the future data of ensemble model was divided into three stages:early century(2021-2040),middle century(2041-2070)and ending century(2071-2100)to calculate the seasonal and inter-annual variation of wind energy during three future stages in 24 stations of four different disticts in Guangdong(PRD,EG,WG and NG).It was concluded that from the view of seasonal changes,the seasonal changes were obvious and the fluctuation in spring and summer was larger but in winter was smaller under the two carbon emission scenarios while from the view of inter-annual,the integral variation of wind energy was increase in the early and middle of century but some stations in those four disticts were sight deline under the two carbon emission scenarios.What's more,RCP8.5 had a clearer change than that in RCP4.5.