An E-DSGE Study On The Effects Of Low-Carbon Policies For Heterogeneous Agents

In recent years,the issue of climate change has gradually become the core concern of the field of environmental economics and policy makers.Many countries have recognized the serious consequences of environmental pollution on society and have therefore implemented various low-carbon policies to reduce the externalizes of environmental pollution."Promoting green development" has become one of the core elements of China’s national governance modernization and the National 14th Five-Year Plan clearly proposed to resolutely curb the blind development of high energy-consuming and high-emission projects and promote green transformation to achieve positive development.Therefore,this dissertation simulates and analyzes the macro environmental economic effects of structural low-carbon policies under heterogeneous agent conditions,expanding the application of macro environmental economic theory and providing policy insights.The purpose of this dissertation is to explore the low-carbon policy applicable to the sustainable development model under the heterogeneity of economic agent conditions.The research is conducted along the lines of "literature review-theoretical foundationdevelopment history-simulation-conclusion and recommendation".Firstly,we collate the relevant literature and theoretical foundations of low-carbon policy effects,combining the methodology of environmental stochastic dynamic general equilibrium(E-DSGE)model,giving the introduction of environmental variables,exogenous shock selection and low-carbon policy setting methods.And the environmental economic effect impact mechanism of low-carbon policy under heterogeneous manufacturers and heterogeneous countries conditions is proposed.Secondly,we analyzed the development history of environmental economy and summarized the overall characteristics of environmental economy and policy experience.And based on China’s environmental economy data from 1980 to 2020,the Hodrick-Prescott(HP)filtering method is used to discriminate the trend component and the cyclical component to infer the pro-cyclical trend of carbon emissions in China.Based on the above theoretical foundation and realistic basis,this dissertation constructs an E-DSGE model incorporating climate issues and environmental stochastic shocks as a benchmark model to study the effect of a single low-carbon policy.Then,the benchmark model is extended to the manufacturer heterogeneity condition by introducing clean energy,clean technology,low-carbon transition degree and structural low-carbon policies to construct a heterogeneous manufacturer E-DSGE model.With this model,we research on the structural low-carbon policy effects under the heterogeneous manufacturer perspective.Further,the heterogeneous manufacturer E-DSGE model is extended with open economy conditions and bilateral structural low-carbon policies and asymmetric stochastic shocks to construct a heterogeneous country E-DSGE model studying the effect of bilateral structural low-carbon policies under the perspective of heterogeneous countries.Finally,the parameters of the three improved theoretical models are calibrated and Bayesian estimated separately,and the Markov chain-Monte Carlo(MCMC)method is used for model diagnosis.The diagnosed model simulation results are used to assess the environmental-economic effects of single low-carbon policy,structural low-carbon policy and bilateral structural low-carbon policy,respectively.And steady-state analysis,dynamic effects analysis and variance and sensitivity analysis are performed.Based on the model simulation results,the following conclusions were obtained:Ⅰ.Single low-carbon policy effects under baseline conditions:(1)Low-carbon policies have significant effects on pollution and carbon reduction but have not yet realized the "double dividend" of economic growth and carbon reduction.(2)The implementation of low-carbon policies reduces the volatility of the environmental economy under uncertainty shocks.(3)Carbon tax and total control policies have advantages in reducing carbon and maintaining economic development,respectively.And intensity control policies have stabilizer effects.Ⅱ.Structural low-carbon policy effects under heterogeneous manufacturer conditions:(1)The promotion of clean energy can ease China’s economic dependence on fossil energy and market access for green enterprises can contribute to economic growth.(2)Structural low-carbon policies have trade-off synergies,balancing energy demand with economic growth and achieving a "double dividend" of environmental improvement and economic development.(3)Structural low-carbon policies can promote green development.(4)Economic fluctuations caused by exogenous shocks are greater under structural low-carbon policies.Ⅲ.Bilateral structural low-carbon policy effects under heterogeneous country conditions:(1)The implementation of international low-carbon policies can bring positive improvements in the global environment.But there are differences in the impact of adopting different structural policy combinations on the level of the world economy.(2)International carbon trade markets can act as stabilizers and smooth out fluctuations in the world economy.(3)An increase in the gap in the level of low-carbon economies between countries will widen the gap of environmental economies levels between countries.Based on the research findings,the following policy recommendations are proposed:(1)In the period of high economic growth,total carbon emission control,structural carbon emission intensity control and bilateral structural carbon emission intensity control policies are recommended for the baseline,heterogeneous manufacturers and heterogeneous countries conditions,respectively.(2)In the period of medium economic growth,heterogeneous agents are recommended to adopt carbon emission intensity control,structural carbon emission total control and bilateral structural carbon emission intensity control policies,respectively.(3)In the period of low economic growth,heterogeneous agents are recommended to adopt carbon tax,structural carbon tax and bilateral structural carbon emission total control policies,respectively.