Exploring The Influencing Factors Of Industrial Linkage Change

In order to keep well developing of the economy,government needs to adjust the industrial structure from a macro perspective and correctly treat the changes of the leading industries and basic industries.Industrial linkage is a key index to identify the leading industries and basic industries.This paper studies the yearly changes of influence and the sensitivity in different departments from 3 commonly used measurement methods of industrial linkage.At the same time,we introduced the SDA and IDA method to derive the composed formulas of industrial linkage change.Finally,we collected 15 input-output tables(2000-2014)of China released on the world input-output database by European Union,and did some empirical studies using data of 18 industries.From analysis,we conclude that the best way to identify the leading and basic industries is the method of measurement weighted by final outputs.which can make the industrial linkage more extreme,thus easily screening highly linkage industries.However,the linkage measure weighted by the final output rate has obvious shortcomings.Because when weighted by final output rate,the decomposition result of single industry's sensitivity only relates to its self variables,including change rate of economical technical,final output,total output,but not be affected by the overall economy factors,this is not in accordance with the relative characteristics of linkages.From the empirical studies,the manufacturing industry is far ahead when considering scales of final and total output.It has obvious driving role in the national economy.As top leading industry,the position of the manufacturing industry has been maintained for 15 years.The weighted influence of the mining and quarrying industry has been negative,mainly because its a heavily import dependent industry,and has a negative final output.Take 2013-2014 data for an example,from the SDA results of influence change in 18 industries,total output and self economical technical show negative effect,but the average economical technical and consumption,capital formation,net exports show positive effect.As for IDA results of sensitivity change,total output shows negative effect,but self economical technical,average economical technical,consumption,capital formation,net exports show positive effect respectively.In the change of linkage,the effects of total output,consumption and capital formation are most obvious.IDA results show the large differences of decomposed factors when using difference influence measures.Generally,only average output rate is slightly noticeable.Factor decomposition of sensitivity change rate shows that the change rate of self output and average output are main influence factors.