Research On System Dynamic Model Of Regional Transport Controlled By Multi-dimensions

With the increase of carbon emissions from transport,the development of low carbon transport has become an important strategy for China to build a sustainable and low carbon society.In the strategy of Beijing-Tianj in-Hebei collaborative development,it emphasizes to promote the transport integration of Beijing-Tianj in-Hebei region,and realize the construction of low carbon transport.Based on this,the development of low carbon in the whole region will be further promoted.Therefore,it is necessary and meaningful to study the low carbon mode for regional transport under the integration of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei for the future development of low carbon transport in China.The main contributions of this thesis are as follows:Based on the analysis of the development of low carbon transport,carbon emission and energy related data from different countries,the necessity of developing low carbon transport in China has been identified.The data of low carbonization in China,the UK and the United States are collected,analyzed and compared.According to the national conditions of China,the characteristics and difficulties of developing low carbon transport in Beijing-Tianj in-Hebei region are put forward.The factors which affect the regional transport's carbon emissions are analyzed.The system dynamics model of Beijing-Tianj in-Hebei region's low carbon transport is proposed.First,the Kay a identity and the LMDI method are used to decompose the contribution of each factor to the carbon emissions from transport.And then,based on.the systematic analysis and dimension analysis of the system of carbon emissions Beijing-Tianj in-Hebei's transport,the mathematical relations between the factors and the carbon emissions are established.Because the carbon emission system of regional transport has a characteristic of multi-dimension,and has complex relations between dimensions,the Space-Time dimension and Total-Time dimension are chosen to build the dynamic models of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region's low carbon transport persperctively.In the case of the completion of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei transport integration,the validity of the model is verified through historical data.The carbon emissions of the urban traffic in Beijing-Tianj in-Hebei region for 2018-2022 years is estimated.The estimation shows that the strategy of intercity rail transit development can effectively restrain the growth rate and reduce the carbon emissions from transport in Beijing-Tianj in-Hebei region.