The Damage Study Of Low-temperature And Freezing Disaster In China

Meteorological disasters occur frequently in our country and the development of agriculture is mainly affected by drought,flood,low-temperature and freezing disaster.With extreme weather appearing frequently,low-temperature and freezing disaster cause serious influence to agriculture,so it's particularly important to research the disaster situation on low-temperature and freezing disaster.Now we research low-temperature and freezing disaster on analyzed of the law,spatial and temporal distribution,and occurring mechanism of crops loss.To understand low-temperature and freezing disaster better5we select the agricultural disaster situation,with the help of MATLAB and SPSS statistical software,using the statistical method and the method of fuzzy mathematics,the national crop losses due to the low temperature freezing disaster and risk study.The main contents are as follows:Firstly author summarized low-temperature and freezing disaster in China,dealt with the national disaster data of low-temperature and freezing disaster,described the disaster affected situation.The results showed that low-temperature and freezing disaster accounts for about 7.4%of the meteorological disasters.On the temporal distribution,in 2008,crops affected by low-temperature and freezing disaster become worse,and trend on the increasing from 1990 to 2010.0n the space,we got the affected area of all provinces using the Arc GIS software.Through time and space distribution,we can comprehensively understand the low-temperature and freezing disaster situation.The author selected the affected crops area from 1980 to 2015,used the Markov model to forecast the damage caused by the low-temperature and freezing disaster,and studied the risk of low-temperature and freezing disaster by information diffusion theory.So we can get the risk estimate and recreate fixed number of year,compare analysis the two kinds of model result.At last,the information diffusion theory pointed to the provinces of freezing disaster situation in region,and analysis of the risk.Through the Markov model and information diffusion theory,we got the prediction result,risk recreate fixed number of year.Meanwhile,combining with the influence of low-temperature and freezing disaster on crops,regional distribution on the low temperature and freezing,we conclude the coping strategy and suggestions.