| Henan province is a big province of tobacco production,tobacco production plays a vital role to improve the local economy.So,it plays an important role to study the situation of flue-cured tobacco production,prove the relationship between the yield of flue-cured tobacco and different grades and parts of leaf ratio,analysis of climate factors affecting the yield of flue-cured tobacco in Henan Province.This study selected 3 major tobacco planting zones(the West,Middle and South of Henan),10 cities of Henan province,statistics the yield of flue-cured tobacco,the proportion of secondary smoke,the upper leaves and middle leaves,the proportion of the proportion of lower leaves and the proportion of each entire tobacco field growth period(the average temperature,relative humidity,precipitation,sunshine hours,daily minimum temperature,daily maximum temperature and minimum relative humidity)for nearly 11 years(2004-2014 year)in Henan Province,and used various statistical analysis methods,and flue cured tobacco in different areas in Henan province were analyzed by descriptive statistics and variance;and the overall trend of flue-cured tobacco in different tobacco production in Henan province were studied.and the tobacco yield was analyzed by difference analysis,and the relationship between the tobacco yield in different growing areas and different parts of the tobacco grade and proportion were analyzed and the whole growth period and the relationship between the tobacco yield and climatic factors,and according to the flue-cured tobacco production of previous years,the future tobacco production was predicted;And based on climate factors,multiple linear regression and BP neural network model of the tobacco yield and the relationship between climate factors and tobacco production were established,and the economic characteristics of the tobacco growing areas are analyzed.The main conclusions are as follows:1.The overall trend of the yield of flue-cured tobacco were analyzed in recent 11 years in 10 main tobacco growing areas in Henan province,and the results showed: the performance of the tobacco yield in different planting areas in Henan was Xuchang tobacco planting area > Luoyang tobacco planting area > Zhumadian tobacco growing area > Sanmenxia tobacco growing area > Pingdingshan tobacco planting area >Nanyang tobacco growing area > Luohe tobacco planting area > Xinyang tobacco planting area > Jiyuan tobacco planting area > Shangqiu tobacco growing area;and the variance analysis results showed : the yield the difference between Xuchang tobacco yield and other tobacco growing areas was significant,and difference between Luoyang and Zhumadian tobacco planting areas,Pingdingshan and Nanyang tobacco planting areas,Jiyuan and Shangqiu tobacco planting areas were not significant.And the sample stability was great in Luoyang and Sanmenxia tobacco areas.2.The relationship between flue-cured tobacco yield and different grades and parts of the leaf ratio was analyzed in different tobacco planting areas in Henna,and the results showed:the tobacco yield and percentage of superior and medium leaves and proportion of the upper leaves showed a highly significant positive correlation in the Eest,Middle and South of Henan tobacco planting areas,and the tobacco yield in the West of Henan tobacco growing areas and the proportion of lower leaves showed extremely significant negative correlation,and the upper and lower leaves proportion of other tobacco growing areas showed extremely significant negative correlation.The results of a significant test of regression equation in the West of Henan between flue-cured tobacco yield and different grades and parts of tobacco ratio showed that superior tobacco ratio fitted best under the condition of linear(R~2 = 0.826),and middle leaf ratio fitted best under the condition of nonlinear degree(R~2 = 0.8085)in the Middle of Henan,and in the South of Henan tobacco growing areas,middle leaf ratio of Flue-cured Tobacco fitted best under the condition of linear with R~2 for 0.878.3.The relationship of different grades and parts of tobacco ratio of different groups of flue-cured tobacco yield was analyzed,the result indicated that:(1)The yield of flue-cured tobacco in the West,Middle and South of Henan was analyzed by K-means clustering and the yield was divided into three groups,?yield cluster of the West growing areas of Henan was Lushi and Lingbao,and Xin'an,Luanchuan,Ruyang,Yiyang,Shanxian and Luoning was the II yield cluster,and III yield cluster was Mianchi,Mengjin,Songxian and Yichuan;And in the Middle tobacco growing areas of Henan,?yield cluster(Xuchang,Linying,Baofeng and Xiangcheng),II yield cluster(Yanling,Yexian,Lushan,Wuyang and Jiaxian),III yield cluster(Yuzhou,Chengqu,Wugang and Ruzhou);And in the South tobacco growing areas of Henan,?yield cluster(Xiping,Shangcai,Fangcheng and Sheqi),II yield cluster(Qinyang,Neixiang,Dengzhou,Suiping and Zhenping),III yield cluster(Xixia,Sichuan,Zhechuan,Queshan and Tanghe).(2)The yield of flue-cured tobacco in different tobacco growing areas of Henan,the changes of percentage of superior and medium leaves and proportion of middle leaves in three clusters was ?yield clusters > yield clusters ? > yield clusters in the? Middle and South of Henan tobacco growing areas,and the difference in different clusters of percentage of superior and medium leaves was extremely significant in the West of Henan,and the difference in different clusters of proportion of upper,middle and low leaves was significant,and in addition to the proportion of low leaves in the West of Henan tobacco growing areas,the difference in different clusters of percentage of medium leaves was extremely significant,and in different clusters of percentage of superior leaves and percentage of upper and medium leaves was significant.And the changes of percentage of superior and medium leaves and proportion of low leaves in three clusters was ?yield clusters > yield clusters ? > yield clusters in the West? of Henan tobacco growing areas,and the changes of proportion of upper and low leaves was ?yield clusters > ?yield clusters >? yield clusters.4.Comprehensive analysis the economic traits of flue cured tobacco in different areas of Henan Province,The results indicated that: according to the differences of economic traits in different areas,the 10 tobacco planting areas can be divided into four categories:the group I consisted of Sanmenxia,Luoyang and Jiyuan tobacco growing areas,the group?consisted of Xinyang tobacco growing areas,and the group ?consisted of Xuchang,Nanyang,Zhumadian,Pingdingshan,Luohe tobacco growing areas and the group?consisted of Shangqiu tobacco growing areas.The comprehensive performance of various groups of flue-cured tobacco economic traits showed: the performance of Xuchang,Nanyang,Zhumadian,Pingdingshan,Luohe tobacco growing areas of was optimal and comprehensive evaluation value was 0.98,and followed by Sanmenxia,Luoyang and Jiyuan and the comprehensive evaluation value was 0.93,and Xinyang growing areas was relatively low and comprehensive evaluation value was 0.89 and Shangqiu growing areas was lowest and comprehensive evaluation value was 0.85.5.The relationship between tobacco yield and climatic factors was analyzed,and the results of the study indicated that:(1)The results of the path analysis between flue-cured tobacco yield and climatic factors in different tobacco growing areas showed that in the West of Henan tobacco growing areas,the direct effect between the flue-cured tobacco yield and climate factors was the average temperature >sunshine duration > daily maximum temperature >relative humidity > precipitation > relative humidity > daily minimum temperature,and average temperature,relative humidity,and daily minimum the maximum temperature,minimum relative humidity were the direct effect on flue-cured tobacco yield,and precipitation and sunshine duration were the negative direct effect on flue-cured tobacco yield,and the the negative effect of maximum temperature was minimum;and in the Middle of Henan tobacco growing areas,the direct effect between climate factors and flue-cured tobacco yield was not equal,and the performance was the average temperature >sunshine duration >precipitation > minimum relative humidity > daily maximum temperature> relative humidity > daily minimum temperature.and the negative effect between climate factors and flue-cured tobacco yield showed that the negative effect of average temperature on flue cured tobacco yield was the largest,and followed by sunshine duration,and daily minimum temperature was minimum;and in the South of Henan tobacco growing areas,the direct effect between the flue-cured tobacco yield and climate factors was sunshine duration > average temperature > precipitation > relative humidity > daily maximum temperature > minimum relative humidity > day minimum temperature,and the negative effect between climate factors and flue-cured tobacco yield showed that the negative effect of sunshine duration on flue cured tobacco yield was the largest,and followed by average temperature,and daily maximum temperature was minimum.(2)The grey superior analysis of the relationship between flue-cured tobacco yield in different tobacco growing areas and climatic factors showed: on the comprehensive correlative degree,the correlation order of the flue-cured tobacco yield and climatic factors was the average temperature > sunshine duration > precipitation > daily minimum temperature > relative humidity > minimum relative humidity > daily maximum temperature in the West of Henan tobacco growing areas,and in the Middle of Henan tobacco growing areas,the correlation order of the flue-cured tobacco yield and climatic factors was sunshine duration > average temperature > precipitation > daily minimum temperature > minimum relative humidity > relative humidity > daily maximum temperature,and the correlation order of the flue-cured tobacco yield and climatic factors was the average temperature > sunshine duration > daily minimum temperature > precipitation > minimum relative humidity > daily maximum temperature > relative humidity in the South of Henan tobacco growing areas.6.The tobacco yield predicted model based on climatic factors in different tobacco growing areas was analyzed,and the results indicated that:(1)The results of the grey prediction model of flue cured tobacco yield showed that: the gray model predicted the prediction yield and actual yield were in good agreement in the West,Middle and South of Henan tobacco growing areas,and the prediction accuracy was as high as 0.95,0.94 and 0.96,and it could predict the tobacco yield in Henan growing areas and at the same time the actual yield uniform distributed on both sides of the predicted yield.And the predicted flue-cured tobacco yield valued for 2284.17kg/hm~2 in the west of Henan tobacco growing areas in 2015,and the predicted flue-cured tobacco yield in the Middle of Henan valued for 2307.32 kg /hm~2,the predicted flue-cured tobacco yield in the South of Henan valued for 2267.25kg/hm~2.(2)The multiple regression analysis of flue-cured tobacco yield in different growing areas of Henan resulted that: the multiple regression prediction model was established based on average temperature,precipitation and sunshine duration in the West of Henan tobacco growing areas,and regression model of variance analysis reached extremely significantly level,and average temperature,precipitation,sunshine duration comprehensively effected on flue-cured tobacco yield and the regression relationship was significant with the level of the yield of flue-cured tobacco,and the flue cured tobacco yield change of 97.4% was jointly determined by three indicators;and in the Middle of Henan tobacco growing areas,and the multiple regression prediction model was established based on mean temperature,sunshine duration,minimum relative humidity and the maximum daily temperature,and regression model of variance analysis reached extremely significantly level,and the flue cured tobacco yield change of 99.3% was jointly determined by four indicators;and in the South of Henan tobacco growing areas,the multiple regression prediction model was established based on average temperature,precipitation,sunshine and daily minimum temperature,and the regression relationship was extremely significant with the level of the yield of flue-cured tobacco,with the level of the yield of flue-cured tobacco exist significant regression relationship,and the flue cured tobacco yield change of 93.7% was jointly determined by three indicators.(3)Analysis of the BP neural network model of yield of flue-cured tobacco in different tobacco growing areas showed that,average temperature,relative humidity,precipitation,sunshine hours,daily minimum and daily maximum temperature,minimum relative humidity seven parameters were integrated in the entire tobacco growing periods,and predicted the yield of Henan flue-cured tobacco,network model of flue-cured tobacco yield prediction values and target values showed significant correlation and regression of R values were greater than 0.96,and indicated that the output values and measured values were good consistency trend of the established BP neural network model after trained,and the overall error was small and the data showed a normal distribution and BP neural network could accurately predict flue-cured tobacco yield. |
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