Study On Land Carrying Capacity Of Regional Differences And Its Applicability In China

In 2012 the State Council issued the third edition of the ‘National Land Use Planning(2006-2020)' on the objectives and tasks of the land use for the next 15 years,including 6 binding targets and 9 prospective targets.Urbanization Conference held in December 2013,clearly strengthened the utilization efficiency of urban construction land.In 2013,the Central Rural Work Conference further proposed food security and 18 million mu of arable land red line.In 2014,‘New National Urbanization Plan(2014-2020)' was announced and proposed to protect farmland and urban development on the basis of the premise.Visibly,the state will always adhere to the most stringent farmland protection system,adhere to the principle of priority of farmland protection,quantity and quality,in accordance with the requirements that ‘controlling increment,revitalizing the stock,optimizing structure and improving efficiency'.The state should innovate land management system,optimize land use structure and improve the efficiency of land use in urban and rural areas.This paper selected farmland income,urban and rural population and living cost of the urban and rural population as measurable indicators,and assumed that farmland income meet survival needs of farmers firstly,farmers' survival level can be further divided into 2 levels,low level is meeting food consumption expenses and high level is meeting basic living expenses.If farmland value has already met the high survival level of farmers,there still have remaining,it will contribute to meeting low survival level of a part of the urban population.Therefore,this paper built population capacity coefficient model,designed first-order and second-order population capacity coefficient to estimate the land capacity for rural population and the whole population.In addition,this paper designed Population Capacity Applicability Coefficient and inspection standard to evaluate the moderation of the theoretical capacity and the reality population.This paper found that :(1)China's upper limit of first-order population capacity coefficient is relatively high,it means that China 's output of existing arable land can meet all the farmers' food expenses,but lower limit of first-order population capacity coefficient relatively low,it means that China's output of existing arable land can barely meet all population' survival needs.(2)The population capacity coefficient of the regions in China have regional differences,showing the superior that middle than eastern than western pattern.(3)By predicting,Population Capacity Applicability Coefficient has upward trend and it will achieve moderation in 2018,reaching a balanced point for land-population relation.Farmland output gains,rural and urban population growth rates,the level of urbanization are the key factors to improve the China's population capacity coefficient and they will provide a theoretical basis for the land policy.