Assessing Population Viability Of Wild Giant Pandas And Conservation Strategies

Giant pandas(Aliuropoda melanoleuca), an endangered mammal native to China, have been confined to 22 fragmented small local populations in Sichuan province due to the activity of human beings. Population viability analysis(PVA) is a tool to evaluate the risk of extinction for endangered species and to aid consevation decision-making, Therefore, we can use this tool to evaluate the probability of extinction for the isolated local populations. But, at first, an evaluation criteria, the so called minimum viable population(MVP), need to be built. So that we can identify which population need protection, which do not. Then we can find out Limiting factors by sensitivity analysis for the populations below MVP, then make the conservation strategies accordingly.This study used VORTEX(10.1.3.0). Firstly, we analysed the MVP under different time scales for the wild local giant panda populations in Sichuan province.Then the populations below MVP can be identified. According to the results of assessment, we found that, no matter how long the time scale is, at least 14 local populations(63.6%)can not reach the MVP in Sichuan province, they are Minshan A1,A2, B1, Qionglai A4,A5, Daxiangling A1, A2, B1, Xiaoxiangling A1,B1 and Liangshan A2, A3, A4, B1. So conservationists should be focused on these 14 local populations in the future.Secondly, in the sensitivity analysis of several factors, we found that three main Limiting factors of Xiaoxiangling meta-populations are the carrying capacity, infant mortality and initial population size. Therefore, we proposed that conservation work should be focused on the improvment of carrying capacity by habitat restoration, the increasement of the survival rate of infant giant pandas by building artificial rearing dens, the restoration of populations by translocations or reinforcements.In order to find the most effective conservation strategy, our study simulated the population viability analysis of Xiaoxiangling meta-populations under single different conservation strategies. Among all conservation strategies, the genetic diversity can reach 0.89. And the maximum population size can reach 62.87 under the reinforcement of one captive giant panda to Xiaoxiangling population. Another one strategy is to translocate one 4-5 female giant panda from Qionglai mountain to Xiaoxiangling every year, which can make the probability of survival reach 97%, the genetic diversity reach 0.89 for Xiaoxiangling meta-populations, and do not influence the survival of Qionglai mountain population.