Study On The Spillover Effects Of Regional Economic Growth Among Beijing-tianjin-hebei Region Based On VAR Model

Economic growth is the social development goal.China's economy is showing a step by step trend of integration.As a consequence,a region's economic growth not only relies on intrinsic motivation factors purely,but also is pulled by other region's economic growth.Based upon the research of the spillover effects of economic growth among Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei provinces based on VAR model,the paper analyses the spillover channels which provides the inspiration for promoting regional harmonious development.Based on the empirical research,this article builds VAR model on the data and uses Granger Causality Test,impulse response function and variance decomposition to research the spillover effects of economic growth among Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei provinces.Then analyses transmission channels of the spillover effects of economic growth among three regions in terms of inter-regional trade,labor migration and technology diffusion.The conclusions of this paper are different from the other researches which have done before:the economic growth of Beijing has spillover effect on Hebei province,which came from the transferring of secondary industry,besides,the economic growth of Tianjin has spillover effects on both Beijing and Hebei,the spillover effects from Tianjin is bigger than that from Beijing,which is caused by the export prompt of Tianjin.As is known to all,the increasing of export can direct increase GDP,so from the prospective of Hebei province,the spillover effects from Tianjin is bigger than that from Beijing.According to the main transmission channel of the spillover effects of economic growth,this paper gives some policy proposals to promote the coordinated development of the region.