An Empirical Study Of The Relationship Between "Keqiang Index" And Economic Growth

Since proposed,Keqiang index has been regarded as one of the most important reference indexes that can truly reflect the economic growth of our country.But with the adjustment of China's economic development strategy since the 18 th CPC National Congress,the Chinese economy has entered a new normal and the transformation of the industrial structure has become the core measure to promote China's economic sustainable development.Under these circumstances,contribution of the secondary industry to the economic growth has relatively decreased.As three indicators of Keqiang index such as the cargo volume on railways,electricity consumption and loans disbursed by banks are all closely related to secondary industry,further studies need to be conducted to find out whether there is an intrinsic connection between Keqiang Index and economic growth and whether the connections under different industrial structures differ from each other.This paper first analyzes the theory behind the economic growth and industrial structural transformation.Second,it analyzes the intrinsic connection between three indicators of Keqiang index and economic growth,establishes the analysis model between Keqiang index and GDP,and studies the relations between Keqiang index and economic growth by empirical analysis.Finally,this paper constructs a statistical analysis model between Keqiang index and economic growth for 29 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions in China,and studies the relationship between Keqiang index and economic growth under different industrial structures.Based on the GDP figures of 29 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions across China,total consumption of electricity,volume of goods carried by railways,new medium and long-term loans,proportion of the secondary industry,and proportion of the tertiary industry,this paper conducts an empirical study by building a model between Keqiang index and economic growth and the main conclusions are as follows:(1)There is positive correlation between economic growth and total electricity consumption for the whole society.The national economy grows with the increase of total electricity consumption.(2)There is positive correlation between economic growth and cargo volume on railways.Currently,proportion of secondary industry output value still remains at a relatively high level,meaning the secondary industry still contributes a lot to the economic growth.(3)There is positive correlation between economic growth and new medium and long-term loans for both RMB and foreigncurrency.As one of “Three carriages” that promote economic growth,investment plays an important role in stimulating economic growth.Furthermore,the indirect financing constitutes the majority of the financing channels,which determines that loans disbursed by banks have a significant effect on the national economy.(4)There is positive correlation between economic growth and Keqiang Index.At the present stage and in the next few years,the proportion of secondary industry output value will still be at a higher level.In this context,Keqiang Index can still reflect the economic growth very well.