The Study Of Reliability About Keqiang Index Based On The Benford Law

With the rising of economic strength and international status, China’s macroeconomicdata gets more and more attention. However, because of the statistical tools are usuallyopaque, the reliability of economic data has been generally questioned. Although there aremany methods about the reliability of economic data, there isn’t a widely adaptated andhighly efficient method to detect the reliability of a large sample of data. Keqiang index isthe object in the paper. And the Benford test, widely used in the audit, is used in the studyto inspect the economic data, to position suspicious data quickly by combining panelmodel, so as to analyze the authenticity of the data in-depth.The paper mainly includes three aspects as follow: Firstly, the reliability of themethod is questioned when we use Keqiang index to evaluate GDP of all provinces. And itis put forward that Benford test can be used to check the data quality of Keqiang Index.Based on the result that the data quality of volume of railway freight index is unreliable, ainitial positioning is achieved using the sample excluding method combining the goodnessof fit test. Secondly, on account of the disadvantage of the low accuracy about the Benfordlaw, the panel data model is used to examine the data quality of volume of railway freightindex. As a result, the outliers can be positioned rapidly and accurately. Finally, Keqiangindex is optimized by using the panel data model. The less reliable railway freight isreplaced with the volume of freight. The final results show that the new index system ismore reliable, and the error is smaller when it is used to evaluate GDP of all provinces.Through the study, the desired objectives are achieved, the reliability can be detected,and the outliers can be positioned quickly and accurately. The methods used in the paperare based on the angle of data analisis, and are not depended on the relationship and theeconomic significance of the indexes, it can be well migrated. Meanwhile, an importantconclusion and the optimization solution about the Keqiang index system are obtained inthe paper. And the foundation is made for the further study of China’s macroeconomic.