Research On The Relationship Between The Keqiang Index And Chinese Stock Market

Keqiang Index(KQI) does not have fraudulent,because it is composed of three indicators,the electricity consumption of industry, long-term loan of banks and rail traffic volume, and these three indicators are related to the performance accounting of the power companies, banks and railroad companies. And it is more suitable to reflect the real level of Chinese economic than GDP.As the development of Chinese stock market, it is an important reference of the formulation and implementation of government policies, and guiding the social investment,. In order to provide more data to support the government policies, the relationship between macroeconomic and stock market has become the study of many scholars.However, the relationship of KQI and stock market has not been studied by anyone. The SVAR model, impulse response analysis and variance decomposition will be used in this paper to do the empirical research of KQI and Chinese stock market.The theoretical analysis of KQI and the stock market will be placed at the begining of this paper, and find the long-term loan of banks has lost its status in the social financing,and the volume of railway transport is only accounted for 10% of the cargo volume. For these two reasons,KQI would be disorted. Therefore, the assumption of amending KQI which are based on the theory of KQI, is that:using long-term loan of financial institutions instead of long-term loan of banks; using the cargo volume instead of rail traffic volume.Then, HS300, R, M2, CPI and modified KQI are selected as the main research targets, using the filtering method and the weighted moving average method to exclude the data time trends and seasonal adjustment, then the SVAR model are built based on the theoretical analysis and causality, and impulse response analysis and variance decomposition are used to empirical analysis of KQI and Chinese stock market. The conclusion is:(1) KQI can not explain the fluctution of Chinses stock market, but Chinses stock market can explain the fluctution of KQI; (2) In the short term, KQI has a weak positive correlation with Chinese stock market, but has a strong negative correlation in the long term. Combined with the actual situation of Chinese macroeconomic and stock market, financial hoarding are believed to be the reason that cause the divergence of KQI and stock markets, the phenomenon of financial hoarding is that money flow into the stock market for excess returns, but did not play a role in financing of the real economy.And the mechanism of Chinese stock market is not perfect, lacking of supervision and the low quality of the investors are the important reasons that cause the financial hoarding.Finally, based on the empirical results of this paper, and hoping the government can regulate the stock market mechanism, improve supervision, strengthen investor education, and create a favorable economic environment.