Research On The Evaluation And Control Of Social Stability Risk Of Large-scale Engineering Projects

With the further execution of Reform and Opening policy,there’ ve been great development in economy,China has been the second biggest economic entity in the world and it promotes the construction of large-scale projects(LSP).Except for the political benefits to government and economic benefits to people it takes,LSP bring several risks to the social stability too.There’ve been lots of mass disturbances such as riot,demonstration and group petition,it not only affect the regular construction of LSP,but also influences the social stability.Firstly,this paper analyzes the related definitions and characteristics of large-scale project social stability risks,and analyzes the mechanism of social stability risks in large-scale projects from the perspectives of risk sources,objective factors,subjective factors,and media publicity.Secondly identify and evaluate the social stability risk factors of large projects.Through the Internet and literature,the company conducts pre-identification of big data risks for social stability risk events of large-scale construction projects,and classifies and summarizes various risk factors on the basis of an analysis of risk event case bases.It concludes that land acquisition,demolition,and ecology are included.There are four major risk factors for the environment,social livelihoods,and information sensational factors.Four levels of risk factors were evaluated using the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP).In the assessment of social stability risk factors for large-scale projects,the final assessment of the four risk factors was:land acquisition and demolition factors>ecological environment factors>social livelihood factors>information sensibility factors.Thirdly,this paper constructs a bi-level planning model that includes a multi-level decision structure of government and people.Among them,the government as the upper-level leader aims at minimizing the risk of social stability,and adopts three policies of land acquisition and resettlement policies,ecological and environmental policies,and social and people’s livelihood policies as the decision variables;as the followers of the lower reaches The maximum return is the target,and two factors,such as the degree of cooperation with the project construction and the dissatisfaction of the project,are used as decision variables.The government and the public’s decision variables were constrained according to different types of risk factor ratings and realities and information sensibility factors has been put into the constraints of variables for further research.Finally,based on the bi-level planning model above,we use KKT conditions to transform it into a single-level programming model.The numerical simulation of the model was performed using the GA genetic algorithm of Matlab.The stability of the results obtained confirms the practicability and applicability of the bi-level model constructed in this paper for the study of social stability risks of LSP,thus providing new ideas and methods for the study of social stability risks.The sensitivity analysis of various parameters in the model was carried out in the end,and the corresponding management implications were obtained,which can effectively help the government to control the social stability risks of large-scale engineering projects.