Prediction Of Retirement Age Based On Pension Balance

The family planning policy that began in the 1970s has changed the natural growth rate of the population.With the economic development and social progress,China's population life expectancy has been greatly extended,both accelerated the process of aging population in China,so that China's old-age insurance is facing major challenges.The main measures to cope with the imbalance of pension income include delaying the retirement age,raising the fertility level and raising the payment level.The existing research has paid more attention to the effect of one kind of policy measures on the balance of pension balance.A number of policy measures are considered together,and there is an interaction between these policies and measures.The question of this paper is:in the context of a major adjustment in the reproductive policy,that is,January 1,2006 the full implementation of the "two children" policy,what kind of delay in retirement age and implementation timetable in order to effectively maintain the pension Balanced.Based on this,this study combines the fertility level with the two factors of retirement age to calculate the appropriate retirement age for men and women to ensure that the retirement population is in a certain range of appropriate ranges to meet the pension balance.In this study,using the sixth national census data in 2010,MATLAB software,and age shift model for population projections,design to fully liberalize the two children under the policy,to maintain a balanced pension retirement age.First,the estimation of the retirement and fertility policy remain unchanged under the circumstances of the population base and get actual retirement population support ratio.Second,in the case of the same retirement policy,fertility policy changes and combines with the full release of the "two children" of the new fertility policy,predicting the possible high,medium and low third gear total fertility changes to calculate the new fertility policy under the population base and its actual retirement population dependency ratio.Finally,based on the above-mentioned two types of retired population dependency,the range of retirement population dependency of 2%is estimated as the standard dependency ratio in 2020,and the retirement age forecast under the model of the benchmark population and the new fertility policy is respectively carried out to calculate the appropriate retirement age of men and women.The conclusion is:First,the new fertility policy can delay the recent pension pressure,but long-term is not obvious;Second,comparing various three-class fertility level,the higher the fertility is more beneficial to ease the pressure to reduce retirement pensions;Thirdly,the delayed retirement age is critical to achieving the balance of payments.