Study Of Pension Reform Based On Balance Of Payments Gap

Since the part accumulation mechanism of pension system been executed. China has gradually established a unique social security system in line with the basic national conditions. Over past ten years, China’s social security has been developed rapidly, but there are still many issues in the balance of payments and the investment, which not resolved still. The country’s population is ageing fast, This also affects the influence the balance of endowment insurance, but also brings serious burden to China’s social security system.First of all, we discuss the advantages and disadvantages of three social security operation modes according to the structural features and principles, then sort out the income gap of basic pension fund. After doing research on the previous achievements of theory, we build the model to forecast the income gap which can measure influence of aging population. Based on these data we can put forward countermeasures and suggestions for pension reform.In this paper, we use age moving method to forecast the insured population structure, then we use Grey Markov model to forecast the income of urban employees in the future of China. After this work, these predicted data can be used in revenue and expenditure gap forecasting. Based on the current policies and actual conditions, this paper assumes the payment rate is fixed in substitution rate of 42% and 55%. Account to the predicted results, we find that endowment insurance balance of China in the future is not optimistic with very huge gap.We also do the empirical analysis of social security pension system between Japan and Chile. We both described the Japanese social security reform in 2000 and the Chile social security reform in1981.. Through the research on the advantages and disadvantages of pension policies in Japan and Chile, we analysis the solutions for the problems of pension fund balance in these two countries. Compared with payments endowment insurance in our country at present. We can put forward countermeasures and suggestions to provide ideas for the endowment policy.According to the account of the national social security fund forecasting and the experience of the pension system reform in foreign countries. We concludes that China should delay the retirement age to guarantee fund balance of pooling account. We also should promote pension tax reform to ensure the stable source of funds. At the same time, the commercial management concept is very important for social security fund operations. As a kind of inevitable trend, we should take measures to expand the accumulation ratio also.